This very innocent looking weather system currently spreading snow across portions of South Dakota will take a very parabolic path across North America and thanks to a huge insurgence of upper air support, it will make a very needed turn to the north and deliver the powder day that we have long been waiting for. Before I move on to the details we have to give a shout out to Vermont's own Hannah Kearney from Norwich who provided us with an exhilarating performance in the women's moguls at the Vancouver Olympics. Although many MRG loyalists may not ski bumps competitively, we can certainly appreciate how technically challenging they can be, especially after a back flip. It was a lot of fun to watch her win the gold last night and do so "on the road" against the home favorite Jenn Heil who herself was pretty dazzling.
Now moving on to the weather related items of the post since we do have a storm to discuss and some important changes in the overnight model data that has us in some powdery goodness by Tuesday. The storm will impact many of the big city locations as its energy transfers itself across the West Virginia mountains to the Atlantic Coast. At that point it will use the combination of the Atlantic Ocean and its upper air dynamic support to turn north and turn negative. The "turn negative" part refers to the maturation of this winter storm and specifically its ability to thrust its moisture westward across the Vermont and New Hampshire high country. The consensus of models had moisture close but generally showed a rather limited period of precipitation for the mountain. The two overnight runs of the American GFS model have shifted this storm northwest and are tracking the storm across eastern Mass, quite a shift over the past 48 hours. There remains some uncertainty about the actual track and some lingering indications of an Cape Cod track which and thus lower accumulations. My preliminary guess is for snow to begin during the morning Tuesday and continue through much of the day and into the overnight yielding several much needed inches for the mountain.
Snow from the storm will then be followed by snow from terrain enhancement and this should continue through Wednesday before tapering to flurries by Thursday and Friday. It should remain cold through the weekend and into next week. More details on the long range to follow in the coming days.