Megalopitan part three means a bigger base at Capitol Hill than at MRG

Perhaps a few turns down those long steps could make for a powder day. Although I would seem to beat a dead horse with these references to snowfall at another geographical location, one has to appreciate the statistical magnitude of the Mid-Atlantic snowfall this season. I have experienced many winters in this location and although you might think MRG is in the midst of a bad snow drought, there are many winters in Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington D.C. where snowfall is less than 10 inches for the entire season. This winter however will feature 3 feet of snow in a week, an epic amount even for those of us skiers that like to maintain high standards when it comes to snowfall. If you can't take it anymore you could make the 9 hour drive to Ski Liberty near the Mason-Dixon line. This pathetic looking hill attracts mostly urbanites but check out the snowfall report.

http://www.skiliberty.com/lmr/Snow-Grooming.aspx

I am green with envy !!

So Megalopitan part III has indeed shifted its track ever so slightly to the north and will allow for some light snow to cover most of the southern two thirds of Vermont. It will be difficult to make more than an inch out of what falls and most of what falls will be in southern New England. The days prior to the holiday weekend appear to have a shallow amount of boundary layer instability and this should allow for persistent flurries but it will be tough to produce any more than an inch or two out all this by the holiday weekend.

The next system appears to be polar driven as the southern branch has shown signs of a late winter fade which makes sense since El Nino has also begun to fade. This clipper system however will have to contend with our "infamous block" and will thus dive southeastward bringing its limited moisture into West Virginia before attempting to make something of itself along the Atlantic Ocean. This again will be a difficult set of circumstances for us and although one can't completely rule out powder in the Sunday/Monday time frame it is looking less likely by the day. The weekend as a whole should be winter-like with temperatures in the low 20's by day and single numbers by night. It will be unstable enough for clouds and windy enough for the wind-proof shell but that is about all I can say about the upcoming holiday weekend. It will not however be a rain-out and for these small things I can be thankful.

More flurries and snow showers are possible in the early next week time frame as another re-enforcing shot of chill arrives across the eastern United States. Temperatures in Vermont will be very tolerable and statistically be characterized as normal. The most interesting development in the longer range or specifically the later part of next week is the development of a positive PNA as a contributing element to an already very blocked high latitude jet stream pattern. The PNA has really been the last missing link for the current pattern to turn from slightly cold to very cold. The PNA moving to the positive allows the arctic pipeline to open and the bone chilling cold to come. For us here at MRG, we can also hope that the shifting of the ridge to a slightly more westward location might allow some of these big east coast storms to make a northward turn, if we are lucky enough to get a few more.