First let me apologize for the incomplete status of the last update. As it turns out we need another update to do the Wednesday/Thursday time frame some justice. And this situation continues to evolve faster than us prognosticators can issue updates from airports.
We pulled an Indiana Jones !!!
As for Wednesday and Thursday. It continues to change and in a way that greatly benefits MRG. We indeed pulled a big time Indiana Jones ! A low level push of cold air has taken hold of much of the northern half of the state Wednesday night and will bring readings to below freezing levels by morning. It will take a bit longer for below freezing temperatures to prevail at all levels of the atmosphere but this is expected to occur during the day Wednesday. The result is an incredible shift in the forecast compared to that of 4 days ago. Precipitation will re-develop as a snow/sleet mixture during the morning before going to all snow and accumulating during the afternoon. Extrapolating the areas of moisture from one place to another would suggest that most of the snow will fall during the late afternoon, evening and then through much of Thursday. This means that Thursday is the big winner with colder temps continued snowfall and lots of powder already on the ground. We should get a few inches of snow by late Wednesday afternoon but I would not expect any by first tracks time tomorrow. The total snowfall by late in the day Thursday will range between 7-14 inches and much will depend on how much sleet mixes with the precipitation during the day Wednesday. The shift in the track of the storm was vital in the forecast change. It not only allowed much of northern Vermont to sit favorably on the northern flank of the surface low pressure area but it also allowed some low level arctic cold in Quebec to re-patriate itself in New England (no pun intended).
The weekend is now full of 1-2 foot potential !!
Amazingly, the news is even better for the weekend and is going to turn the upcoming 6 days into one of the best ski periods of the season. We knew fairly early that an east coast trough amplification of some variety and of some intensity brought promise to the weekend of the 9th and 10th. What we now know is that winter will bring the full gamut of its most famous music including arctic air, snow, wind and cold. The results appear very promising indeed. There is a potent piece of jet energy in the Gulf of Alaska which will move east rapidly and act as the catalyst for the energizing pattern. It will also cause low pressure to develop rapidly in the interior Northeast and later evolve into a full-blown coastal storm in the Gulf of Maine. New snow from this system should begin falling during the day Saturday but the best part of this situation involves the TIS (Terrain induced snow) setup in the wake of this storm. It is early but the possibilities of 1-2 feet of snow exist for the weekend and the prospects of an epic Sunday are very real so stay tuned.
Model/Ensemble and teleconnection indices all point to another possible time frame of trouble late next week. After that there are some real positive signs starting to show up and resulting from a drop in the AO index. With the help of the next 6-days and a bit more tap dancing late next week we may go into Presidents week with a full head of steam and snow in the forecast. Lets hope.