Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Monday, February 11, 2008

Snow is piling up and so is the potential going into the Presidents Day holiday !!!

Over the course of this winter, arctic air has proven to be formidable ally for us and I bring it up because I gave it no credit going into the winter. I cited the snow cover area for the northern hemisphere and I could technically claim that the relationship held up since temperatures have averaged above normal. In reality though the arctic cold has proved to be a force and has saved MRG from a few big predicaments the biggest of which was last week. The mainly positive AO and the unusually strong Pacific Jet could have resulted in many catastrophes but I think its fair to say that those have been minimized. This week is another example. There was a huge buildup of cold across Canada during much of the past week and it has overwhelmed a marginal pattern.

Powder for your Wednesday

It will be dry during the day Tuesday and all will be calm in advance of an approaching storm system. I wouldn't describe the jet stream as having split necessarily but as we move toward the later part of the winter season we are seeing multiple currents in the jet stream. Energy within this southern current will tap the Gulf and the Atlantic and thus will bring a significant area of moisture northward into Vermont. The storm will not take the dream track and it looked for a time that precipitation might go from snow to freezing rain but not so anymore. This is now an all snow situation (just barely) and the snow should begin during the evening Tuesday and continue for a good portion of the night and into first tracks time Wednesday morning. How much powder will you be dancing in while waiting for the single chair to open ? 7-10 inches but an additional few inches are likely by mid morning before snow tapers off. The Weather Service is suggesting a chance for lighter snows throughout the day but I will also say that I think a dry slot could cut the snow off fairly abruptly during the morning.

Weekend appears quite cold
Thursday will be a touch on the windy side seasonable below freezing temps will keep the fresh powder in place. Meanwhile, lots of jet energy is gathering and conspiring in the southern part of the Rockies and will prove to be a big player in our weather going forward into the weekend. The system will in fact split with a piece heading our way Friday and bringing a period of light snow and perhaps a few inches. Behind this initial and more benign low pressure area will come a direct attack of cold from the arctic. As it turns out, this cold will be the strongest of the season since it will not take the scenic, south of the Great Lakes" route but will instead arrive straight out of Quebec. Be prepared for temps to be below zero throughout the day Saturday along with wind which are conditions ripe for the cold wax. Sunday morning will be bitterly cold but winds will have diminished and readings should reach the teens in the afternoon which to be honest is quite comfortable when you pounded in the MRG bumps.

The big storm potential on Presidents Day

Yes there are big things potentially in the works for Presidents Day. The second and more significant piece of the aforementioned storm system will back the trucks into the Gulf of Mexico and transport some serious moisture northeastward toward us. Bring it on indeed but the indication is that the storm is not too convicted as to whether it wants to track east or west of the Appalachian Mountain spine. This is a very important question but to say this storm has potential is almost an understatement since it arrives in a very amplifying pattern. Yes, the Pacific Jet is dead or at least temporarily wounded next week and it will be our turn to get the bulk of the action. At the very least there will be snow accumulations late Sunday or early Monday and some additional TIS accumulations Monday night or Tuesday. What happens in between are the details that are still being fought over. At this time I think a period of sleet or a dry slot is about the worst we could see but stay tuned because a change in the systems expected track could alter expectations quite dramatically.

Jupiter and beyond the infinite ?? Actually its more like the rest of next week

So a few days ago I had left Presidents Week as a big ??? But we now have huge ridge west/trough east situation which will keep us out of harms way through at least Thursday I think. Monday is our storm potential anything after that will be from TIS or a passing clipper. I would also expect below normal temperatures and some wind on at least two of the days next week which means high temperatures between 5-15 and low temperatures below zero. The weekend of the 23rd and 24th might consist of more moderate temperatures and what appears to be an absence of big storms but a passing clipper could bring some additional snow. Its early though so clarifications and changes are likely.

1 comment:

arthendrix said...

Hey Josh,

You said, " I wouldn't describe the jet stream as having split necessarily but as we move toward the later part of the winter season we are seeing multiple currents in the jet stream. ".

Is this a good thing or bad thing for us here in the East?

Please elaborate if you can. (either here, or next post).