A few days cold, a few days non-excessively mild over the next 7 days and maybe some fun toward the end of next week

The northern Vermont high country was refreshed with a half-hearted snow event Tuesday. The southeasterly cross winds were a bit unfortunate since it is that direction which can limit the single chair, operationally speaking. A light additional accumulation of combined snow and some wintry mix stuff can be expected Tuesday evening ahead of what will be a blustery and chilly Wednesday. This time winds will be northwesterly and a bit stronger up and down the mountain but temperatures will hold steady around the 20-degree mark before falling very late in the day. In other words, we've seen stronger cold. There is just enough instability for flurries or snow showers but the shallow nature of this instability will limit snowfall potential to about an inch or two either late in the day Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Flurries might even linger into Thursday but the cold air and a continuation of the gusty winds will be the bigger story. Temperatures on the mountain might not reach 10 and winds will make it feel well below zero. Friday will be a bit more comfortable thanks to a stronger dose of sunshine and less intense winds. Temperatures Friday afternoon should approach 20. The upcoming weekend will have an early March feel to it even though its only February 22nd and 23rd. We are not expecting any significant precipitation and temperatures will oscillate between the teens during the overnight hours to near or just above the freezing mark each afternoon. Saturday appears to be the sunnier of the two weekend days though some forecast changes are still possible.

Next week is starting to look more interesting overall. Though our mild weather concerns remain in the Monday to Tuesday time frame, temperatures will not reach excessive levels and may remain below the 40-degree mark throughout this period. Models are showing the possibility for some precipitation and a higher likelihood of clouds (which will help limit temperatures), but northern New England is likely to receive a peripheral impact from chillier temperatures up in Canada; which, more than anything else, will limit any mild flow of air. As we progress through next week, Vermont will begin to experience the more favorable impacts of a neutralized weather pattern. The tightened jet in the Pacific (+EPO) has tag teamed with the unblocked Arctic (+AO) and made a wintry life very difficult for many east coast locations. By the end of next week, the EPO is expected to relax enough and even sneak into negative territory while the AO will remain positive but will at least be less positive. In the aggregate, the teleconnection indices will be as neutral as they've been in sometime and a temporary establishment of a ridge across western Canada will open the door for what could be some interesting east coast activity around Thursday Feb 27th. There are strong signs of both an east coast amplification and a storm and the question from here relates to whether such an east coast storm can materialize and where. By far though, this is the best set of larger scale pattern fundamentals we have seen in a while. We've held our own in Vermont without much help this month and perhaps we can finally get a little help to end the month.

The trend of a more neutralized set of pattern fundamentals and teleconnections will continue into early March. It would be dishonest to call the pattern categorically favorable, but it does look at least neutral and ripe for more storminess. More specifically speaking we can probably expect another round of relative chill on Friday February 28th into the leap-year weekend and then perhaps maybe another precipitation event of some sort sometime in the March 2nd to 4th period.