Mid-week storm could use a bit of help and so does the pattern in early March

The weekend finished spring-like across Vermont ski-country thanks to a strong dose of February sunshine. Most areas below 2500 feet finally broke the 40-degree barrier for the first time since January 12th though very low lying areas, especially in the immediate Champlain Valley, have done so a few times since.

Unfortunately this won't be the most optimistic update of the season, which isn't exactly saying a lot for it at all this season. The forecast as a whole simply looks a little milder and it starts this week which will start with a bit of sun on Monday morning, more clouds Monday afternoon and temperatures climbing again into the 40's. Tuesday will be a cloudier and slightly cooler version of Monday but temperatures across low lying areas will again spend lots of time above freezing.

The storm we've been watching is still worthy of watching. It's a big southern Rocky Mountain snow producer this past weekend and will gradually decay as it moves from the southern plains to the Ohio Valley early this week. A weak area of precipitation associated with this storm is expected to reach much of the state by Wednesday morning with very marginal temperatures. Low lying areas will likely see rain from this with mixed precipitation or wet gloppy snow higher up. The real question relates to the evolution of this system as it interacts with the coastline late Wednesday.  To put it plainly, we need a coastal explosion which will have the effect of providing some much needed natural born cooling for this storm and preventing the bulk of the energy from tracking up through New York state. Forecast model data does the coastal transition but we will need a stronger, more dramatic one to get a bit snow event across the northern Vermont ski country. At face value, forecast data is showing more of a rain to wet snow situation Wednesday night with a small gloppy accumulation above 2500 feet. That face value is likely to change however over the next day or two so stay tuned. Additionally, the best party of this storm is the deep instability pool which will move over interior New England later Thursday and bring with it both snow showers and colder temperatures. I would expect at least a few inches of powdery snow but hard to pinpoint a more specific range right now.

Snow showers should continue through Saturday and the month will finish with a few days of wintry-like temperatures and some wind. Friday's temps will be near 20 and will likely stay below 20 through the entire day Saturday. The cold weather will linger through Sunday and Monday, two days which should feature more sunshine but as mentioned in the last update, the pattern will revert back to its well-established 2020 personality. In this case it might mean an even stronger evil empire in the Pacific and a continuation of a positive AO setup in the arctic. I don't see a March 2012 or 2016 on the horizon but the action will shift to the west around the time of March 4th and the door will swing wide open for at least some mild weather up and down the east coast. We survived a marginal pattern throughout February but its hard to do the same in March. We will need help and I don't see much of it coming through March 10th.