Amazingly, MRG will stay mostly sub-freezing over the next 7 days with an excellent chance of staying mostly snow from our next storm (Tuesday)

Thursday's storm was a bit of a disappointment and I am not sure exactly how to describe that snow consistency. It didn't look particularly good but actually skied just fine and the excellent Vermont stretch of snow conditions was allowed to continue. Following a very cold Friday night and early Saturday (-15), a full dose of blue skies and sunshine will boost temperatures on the hill to near 20. The winds won't be non-existent Saturday as I had previously hoped. After starting out very calm winds will start blowing out of the south rather persistently during the afternoon which will help boost those temperatures but will have the effect of making it feel a bit colder. More clouds on Saturday night combined with a continued southerly breeze will actually keep readings near 20 before moving toward the freezing mark on Sunday. A period of light snow is possible from a very innocuous, hardly noticeable system well to our north either Saturday night or Sunday but accumulations will be minimal at best.

The news for the  holiday and subsequent holiday week remains good but there is still room for improvement. Again, northern VT has shown some impressive resistance to what can appropriately described as a god-awful winter weather pattern. We may yet encounter more problems from this pattern but it doesn't look like those problems will really manifest during the upcoming week but it remains a close call with the main precipitation system late Tuesday. As for Washington's Birthday, it looks dry and cold thanks to a weak area of arctic high pressure. Winds actually do look rather calm and this will allow those high teens to feel tolerable.

It looks like just one single modest act as far as precipitation producing systems go next week. For a long time, ensembles had indicated potential trouble around February 17-18 thanks to what appeared to be a strengthening ridge in the jet stream along the east coast. This is why we play the games though and this is why medium range forecasting has its limitations. Our holiday Monday now appears "below normal" and Tuesday's system, in spite of a less than optimal forecast track, will have some cold air to work with. The clouds will arrive by early Tuesday (Feb 18) and the snow should arrive by midday. This is a quick moving storm with a substantial push of mid-level warmth but it will take some time to push critical layers of the atmosphere to the freezing point and beyond. Given the storm's quick movement, there hopefully won't be enough time. I would continue to expect at least the possibility of a wintry mix toward Tuesday night but window for this does look less and less and snowfall accumulations are starting to look better and better. Again, this won't be an epic storm but could certainly provide a refreshing 4-10 inches and hopefully no freezing rain. Colder air is expected to return Wednesday and with it will come the chance for snow showers. It remains a bit early to make a determination but winds do appear as if they will become favorable for some Champlain induced powder. Flurries could linger into Thursday but sunshine should also make an appearance and that should continue into Friday. Amazingly, temperatures could stay in sub-freezing territory the entire week ! The best chance for any above freezing temperatures comes late Tuesday and readings in the Wednesday-Friday period should stay in the teens by day and single numbers or below zero at night.

There are some more glaring signs of improvements in the weather pattern toward the very end of February into early March. Unfortunately that has been pushed back slightly and provided some room for more potential trouble in the February 23-26 time frame. The concern stems from indications in the ensemble data that a system might get pretty wrapped up across the southern Rocky Mountains and thus really pump the jet stream ridge across the east coast. There is a little doubt that it will allow the non-existent winter to persist across the mid-atlantic and southeast US. Those areas have been incredibly mild and have been basking in spring-like weather the entire month. Amazingly, both Washington D.C. and Atlanta have yet to record a temperature below 30 all month. Across Vermont though, perhaps we can continue to survive through it as we've done for the first half of February.