Here is a short update on our approaching winter storm. The marginal temperatures continue to be a concern, especially as the heavier precipitation commences Thursday morning. The latest data is indicating an above freezing layer of about 1000-2000 feet for a few hours around 7 AM , enough to allow for a few hours of rain early Thursday before precipitation changes to snow starting at the high elevations first and lower elevations last. I think MRG can still score 2-5 inches of snow Thursday with the snow falling of a wetter consistency initially and then more powdery as temperatures cool by late morning. The heavy stuff will come and go very quickly Thursday and much of the afternoon will simply be mostly cloudy. On the whole, this storm won't come together quite as I had hoped. Our much needed coastal storm will develop, but is never indicated to consume all of this system's energy.
The storm and the arctic air that follows is expected to create an impressive lake effect snow event downwind of both Lake Erie and Ontario. Models are keying in on a band of snow that is expected to take shape east of Lake Ontario and extend across the Adirondacks and into parts of Vermont. Snow showers are likely Thursday night, Friday and Friday night but areas of Vermont that are under this band will do especially well. MRG appears reasonably well positioned to receive some of the snow from such a band but this is a really tough call regarding what area does the best. It could depend on a span of 10 miles or even less. If I had to guess on a snowfall range for Thursday night into Friday, it would be for another 2-5 inches but it could be more or less. Temperatures on the mountain will be close to 20 Friday with blustery southwest winds.
No changes for the weekend forecast with flurries Saturday and a bit more sun for Sunday. Temperatures both days will struggle to get out of the teens.
Still concerned about a big warmup for the middle part of next week. We could avoid the worst of it but some significant melt is nonetheless likely.
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