Wet, elevation sensitive snowfall appears likely Thursday followed by snow showers and a wintry weekend

Terrific stretch of sunshine came to an end Tuesday on the mountain. Temperatures continue to run well above average and above freezing across most parts of the state with the exception being the highest of the high country. We have a decent looking storm preparing for arrival and a lot of marginal temperatures to make for a tricky forecast.

Northerly winds Tuesday night into early Wednesday will help bring those above-freezing temperatures back toward 30 by Wednesday morning. There will also be a bit of light precipitation falling and indications are that it will be falling as snow. The snow will likely amount to about an inch or two total and be on the gloppier side before ending sometime in the late afternoon hours. It will then remain cloudy overnight as the main event approaches. Temperatures will likely hover right around the freezing mark on the mountain and remain slightly above that level across valley areas.

Regarding this main event, the forecast has trended in the right direction though we need to move further in that direction for something truly ideal. A consolidated area of low pressure will track from Appalachia toward New York State while transitioning some of its energy to the New England coastline. An ideal scenario would involve a faster and more explosive transition but some is better than none and the some might be just enough to keep those marginal temperatures from becoming tool mild, though I have to say it is very, very close. The break in the precipitation should extend through all or most of Wednesday night with heavier precipitation arriving around dawn Thursday. I would expect temperatures in the valley to be in that 34-38 degree range as this is happening while readings are right at the freezing mark from 2000 feet on up. That lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere appears to be right at the freezing mark at the onset of the heavy precipitation which would indicate to me that a snowy morning on the mountain is predicated on a heavy precipitation intensity. As we progress through Thursday however the situation will improve and temperatures, especially in those high elevations will gradually come down. Snow will taper to flurries by late afternoon or evening as readings continue to fall. I want to go full optimistic mode and predict a foot out of all this but those temperature cross sections in the morning are simply too close for comfort. I also want to stress how elevation sensitive the situation is likely to be Thursday both in terms of precipitation type, snowfall accumulations and snow consistency though us MRG and Vermont ski veterans have seen this movie before and are aware of how to play this hand of poker.


By Friday morning, the marginal temperatures will be a thing of the past. It will blustery and chilly with temperatures hovering in the high teens. We should also see continuous snow showers both late Thursday night into most of the day Friday. The instability appears a bit shallow at first and best by Friday afternoon and evening. The wind direction be west or just south of west throughout Friday which is ok for the MRG lifts but not as favorable for us receiving a heavy and continuous dose of snow showers. The Adirondacks and far northern Greens appear best positioned to make those most of this set up but I would still expect a few powdery inches Friday and a small additional accumulation Friday night into early Saturday. The weekend will remain wintry as initially advertised with clouds, some sun, some flurries and some wind on Saturday (High 15-20) and more sun and a bit less wind for Sunday with a high near 20.

If you've been reading the last few updates, my feelings on early March as a whole are not especially optimistic. This sentiment continues but we have moved in a lightly less mild direction today. We are still up against this ultra-persistent positive AO and will thus have a limited amount of arctic cold at our disposal. Over the past 12-24 hours though, ensembles have begun to indicate a large upper level feature several hundred miles off the California coast. This actually has the impact of weakening the action in the Pacific and EPO forecasts have responded  by appearing more neutral 10-14 days out. Next week will start on the cold side but quickly warm and become either somewhat or very mild by the middle of next week. 2 days ago that mild weather was shown to extend into the first full weekend of March (7th-8th) but that forecast period does appear colder now. Overall though, it still doesn't appear especially favorable for the first 10 days of the month and it's a lot more trying to survive marginal pattern fundamentals in March as opposed to February.