Storm poised to deliver us 1-2 feet beginning early Thursday and ending late Friday though the freezing rain concern remains for Thursday evening

Our late week storm looks to be a pretty big one, albeit not without imperfections and is certainly worthy of another update as details continue to get sorted and digested. The critical question continues to revolve around the freezing rain issue; because, well, we're skiers and that precipitation type can be very unkind to skiers. Though sleet isn't exactly powder and is certainly high on density, we can live with it and I've have certainly made a few solid turns through it. I can't speak for everyone though and I wouldn't pretend to.

We remain on target for a Thursday morning burst of overrunning snow beginning around 6 am or so. The snow will fall steadily throughout the morning, accumulating 4-6 inches by early afternoon. The initial burst of precipitation however still constitutes the warm part of this very formidable storm system. A very strong push of milder air is expected to make the trek to Vermont late on Thursday but on the whole, this push looks a bit weaker thanks mostly to the fact that the storm appears a bit further south than it did 24-36 hours ago. That said, precipitation will change to sleet late in the ski day Thursday and continue as such through the early evening. Model data has converged considerably on the strength of the inversion responsible for the precipitation. It is no longer capable, according to forecast data, of taking temperatures into the 40's at the summit of Mt Ellen or General Stark and is now likely to fail and bringing readings above freezing anywhere ! That said, it could remain strong enough to produce a period of freezing rain. It is very, very very close. I tweeted about the higher resolution NAM indicating no freezing rain. The just released European shows what looks to be a minimal period and the most recent American model indicates a period that could extend 12 hours. According to that same American model however, all you have to do is travel 40 miles northwest of the MRV and pretty much avoid the icing entirely. Again, it is that close and it goes without saying that the icing risk is less up toward Stowe, Smuggs and Jay Peak while higher at places like Killington, Pico, Okemo and points south.

And now to the best part of this storm - Friday. Thanks to an incredibly timely infusion of jet energy, the storm will refocus and consolidate itself over the Mid-Atlantic and continue to strengthen as it tracks right into our wheelhouse - the goal posts marked by Cape Cod and Boston. The light wintry mix will become steady and at times heavy wind driven snow on Friday and bring us 8-16 mostly powdery inches. I haven't really talked about temperatures too much actually. The snow early Thursday will be accompanied by readings in the high teens and low 20's. Temperatures could get as high as 25-30 Thursday evening but the heavier wind driven snow on Friday will feature temperatures mostly in the low 20's.

Saturday should feature the return of a bit of sunshine after some early morning flurries. It will be blustery in the morning, but less so in the afternoon and it will be quite cold with readings in teh single numbers all day. A good old fashion post-storm winter day in Vermont. Enjoy.