Happy bluebird Friday ! We start next week on the mild side but will finish on the cold and hopefully very snowy side

The final numbers have yet to be aggregated but the Arctic Oscillation for the month of February is likely to average well over an index of "3" and close to a record for any winter month. Interestingly, most of the MRV and particularly the high country has yet to record a day over 40 degrees which is remarkable given these circumstances. That statistical feat will get tested early next week but it appears as if we can get through the month without a devastating thaw and or a stretch of excessive temperatures. Interesting that the current year is comparing rather similarly to 1988-89 in Vermont which also featured a persistent very positive AO and had glaring lack of snowfall in more populated coastal sections of the northeast and most of the mid-Atlantic. 1989-90 also featured a very positive AO in February and the results were much worse for snow in Vermont, especially as the calendar turned to March. Lets hope that history doesn't repeat for this March and lets hope that history doesn't repeat for next year.

Friday was a spectacular bluebird day for Vermont ski country after a very cold -15 degree start. We can expect a bit more of a breeze Saturday but that wind will help boost temperatures toward 30 with the help of another decent dose of sunshine. We can expect more clouds to finish out the weekend Sunday but it will again be precipitation-free and temperatures should sneak above the freezing mark, at least in areas close the base. If we do indeed break that 40-degree barrier, it will happen Monday and it will only happen again across low lying areas, below 2000 feet. Looks to be a pretty innocuous mild day though with clouds, a few peaks of sunshine, a slight breeze and no precipitation.

We are then contending with the very difficult but potentially exciting forecast in the in the middle to end of next week. Forecast models have yet to settle on an exact solution, which, being that we are still 4-6 days out, is a lot of ask but these same forecast models do agree on the notion of a sizable east coast precipitation event. Vermont will have a minimal amount of cold air to work with at the start of this event, a lot more at the finish and our end result will be very dependent on the track of a strong, consolidated area of low pressure Thursday. The event might commence as early as late Tuesday however with some light precipitation (probably snow) as this system begins its slow approach. This storm, unlike many of its predecessors, is a southern streamer. Initially it will impact us as a somewhat strung out version of its original self. Eventually however, an amplifying pattern along the east coast will give this storm a big 2nd life with a more consolidated area of low pressure developing in the mid-Atlantic region and eventually tracking through New England as one of the stronger weather events of the winter. There have been differing opinions regarding where this storm will track and that is the ultimate question. Some recent forecast models take the storm over New York state which would mean a changeover to rain at some point. There's also been other forecast data indicating a track closer to the coast which would mean an event predominantly snow. Either way, the storm is strong enough to produce a snowy finish and some decent accumulations heading into the weekend. We should be able to get all of these forecast wrinkles ironed out in a few days.

The jet amplification and storm should ensure a cold finish to Feb which includes snow showers Friday and cold weather through the weekend. This is the good news. The bad news is that the pattern for early March, after March 1st appears more likely to revert  back to the trends that have plagued this winter. The jet stream in the Pacific appears angrier and tighter, the AO will resort to its more typical 2020 self. It's pretty frustrating honestly but its been that kind of year. At least we have a decent shot of pulling off something decent next week, we deserve it !