Lots of very mild weather will encompass the eastern part of the United States over the next few days and Vermont will stay mostly out of it. We have many more questions beyond those involving the mild air and we will address all that. The outlook going forward has inched in the right direction but it starts with a bit of a miss, as most of the snow Sunday night into Monday morning will fall south and east of northern Vermont. Monday will feature clouds, flurries or a bit of light snow in the morning but it's no longer expected to amount to much. Temperatures on the mountain might creep above the freezing mark but we will avoid the torch and readings should stay in the 30's.
As expected, there are some significant changes in the outlook for the week but Monday continues to look like the week's mildest day. A modified area of arctic cold will, as expected, push south late on Tuesday and that front will bring a period of light snow to the MRV Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Tuesday's temperatures could again challenge the freezing mark but will fall back into the low 20's as snow accumulates a few inches by Wednesday morning. The rest of Wednesday will be dry, sub-freezing and might present the only opportunity for any blue sky or sunshine in this upcoming Monday-Friday stretch.
It looks like all the fun stuff comes Thursday and Friday. The big east coast airmass clash is certainly a contributing factor to what appears to be a big precipitation fest across New England late in the week, but an amplifying jet stream Friday might provide a final and very welcome twist to this weather bonanza. Precipitation will arrive in the form of snow early Thursday. This initial burst of snow will be significant and will result from a warm push of air up the east coast. Temperatures will be cold enough Thursday (teens) and snow will be heavy enough to make for what I think will be a nice powder day. The questions will begin as the day progresses and as the mid-level push of mild air makes its Vermont approach. Will this mild air be strong enough to change precipitation to sleet and most importantly freezing rain late on Thursday and Thursday night ? The answer is no according to recent data from the American and Canadian model, but yes according to data from the European model. Model data is moving closer to a more definitive answer on this question as of late Sunday, but the freezing rain question still remains.
The final twist involves a regenerated area of low pressure that is expected to form in more direct association with the jet dynamics Thursday evening over Virginia. If the storm manages to refocus its energy over the Mid-Atlantic successfully it could provide us with two major benefits. First, it would end the push of mid-level warmth and limit any potential freezing rain window and most importantly bring us a potential additional significant period of snowfall on Friday. In its entirety, the storm has the potential for being the best of the year so far but the possibility of ice late on Thursday remains a threat and those details will need to be sorted out over the next few days. For the time being, I do feel pretty good about some decent powder early Thursday.
Colder temperatures should dominate Vermont through the weekend of February 8th and 9th with snow possible on Sunday. After that its another week featuring a southeast ridge battling it out with arctic air. It's a dangerous game Vermont plays when this pattern prevails, but the results can be good when the strength of the southeast ridge can be mitigated. Over the last few days, that appears to be the trend thanks largely to what appears to be a more neutralized if not, dare I say it, negative EPO in the Pacific. When it comes to forecasts of a weakening the jet in the Pacific - I can hope but I'll believe it when I see it.
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