The milder weather still looms (weekend & early next week) yet the overall outlook continues to look colder both in the shorter and longer range

Spent some time over the past few updates describing the intensity of the incoming warmth We still have that warmth and it continues to look pretty intense especially during the early to middle part of next week. The warm weather appears to be a 4-5 day problem if you see it from that vantage point. Perhaps you're looking forward to some corn snow and with little doubt we have plenty of that coming. If you want a colder weather trend however we have that also. Some of that for the end of the current week and more of that following the warmth after March 11th. 

It's not hard for blue sky in March to send temperatures soaring. This certainly was the case for Wednesday. On Thursday and Friday, we have very little of that; in fact,  the low level push of chill continues to defy the weather pattern and is even likely to produce a wintry result if you can believe it. Temperatures will start on the milder side Thursday, essentially near the freezing mark. The push of low level cold looks both stronger and arrives earlier however and will effectively hold readings in place through much of the day. Lots of precipitation on the east coast weather map for Thursday, yet all of it will remain south of us through the ski day and a chunk of the evening. Gradually however, the shield of moisture will push north and it's likely snow that falls for a time during the overnight, changing to some sleet or freezing rain before dawn Friday. Some preliminary high resolution output shows some significant icing in southern and even central Vermont Thursday night so please make note of that. In our case, staying on the north edge of the precipitation shield will hopefully keep us out of most of the ice and in a light snow situation that ends before dawn and is capable of yielding a small accumulation of less than 3 inches. It's worth keeping an eye on this given the trends. Snow would have seemed impossible in this weather pattern 5-7 days ago look what's evolving. 

I mentioned in the last update that the low level clouds (low visibility) and chill is likely to linger through  early Saturday and eventually get flushed out later Saturday, letting the March mild push wash over the region from southwest to northeast. A good part of Saturday's ski day could feature readings in the 30's until the very end, where the push of warmth arrives. Showers or periods of lighter rain are possible throughout the day. Sunday appears dry with both blue ski possible and better visibility likely. It's a cold front that pushes the weather out, but it's the kind of front that will actually allow daytime temperatures to be milder. Sunday appears to be 40-plus on the mountain and maybe 50-plus in valley areas. 

The warmth  is expected to intensify on Monday with any sunshine pushing readings to near 60 in valley areas and 50's on the mountain. The upper level pattern and some model output would suggest the warmest day to be Wednesday with the threat of both wind and rain accompanying the mild weather. There are more hints today that we could avoid such an outcome with a weather system tracking close enough to prevent the warmest of scenarios. If I had to guess on the eventual outcome, I would say that 3 days are 50-plus on the mountain and one is close to 60. Certainly it appears very difficult to avoid the rainfall, some of which happens on the aforementioned Saturday and more is likely for the middle of next week. 

And then it's colder and more wintry again. The EPO is shown to weaken and that's accompanied by the development of more blocking  over the northeastern Eurasian continent. The weather pattern doesn't appear capable of sustaining this cold for the duration of March. It does look like it could be particularly intense over a period of 5 days and could even produce yet another mid-March winter storm much like we've had on so many other winters this century. It also could evolve some rather serious arctic chill so don't put the winter coats and extra layers away just yet. 

 

Parts of the forecast period look colder today, though the expectation for lots of early March warmth remains

In spite of the warm weather headed in our direction, Monday morning's 10 below ranks as one of the colder mornings of the season, even as strong March sunshine brings temperatures back into the teens. There's an end in sight to the mild weather and a section of the forecast period doesn't appear as warm though it doesn't change the overall theme of the update. We also still have snow lined up for Tuesday evening which I get to talk about first. 

I love a cold bluebird day and Monday is certainly one of the better ones of the year given the relatively calm winds. These conditions will persist through early Tuesday with temperatures beginning the day around zero along with more sunshine. The thermometer is expected to rise quickly Tuesday and may eclipse the freezing mark briefly even as clouds increase later in the ski day. The snow is expected to begin around 6 pm, timed perfectly with the onset of darkness. Temperatures profiles suggest that the falling snow occurs with readings in the high 20's with accumulations in the 3-5 inch range. The snow is over before dawn and there could be some freezing drizzle very early Wednesday. The clouds on Wednesday are expected to gradually break for some blue sky with the thermometer warming to near 40 by the end of the day. Skiers looking for the driest snow should certainly venture out early with the warm weather later in the day expected to impact most of the mountain.

Thursday appears like a dry day with clouds returning. It appears as if temperatures fall back under the freezing mark in the morning and then rise well above that during the day. Model guidance would suggest an afternoon high close to 40 though it appears to me as if we could exceed that. Friday appears to be a different story entirely and a day that certainly appears different then a few days ago. A low level push of cold arrives from Canada and I would expect this to be strong enough to keep temperatures closer to the freezing mark through much of the day on the mountain. Model consensus would suggest the heaviest precipitation stays to our south with light rain or light freezing rain most likely for a period in central and northern Vermont. In spite of the large warm weather ridge parked over the east coast in this time frame, the low level chill appears formidable enough to remain in place through much of Saturday, keeping it in the 30's for a time with clouds and low visibility. The push of warm air might finally win out very late in the ski day Saturday and this could be accompanied by some rainfall. Sunday continues to appear like a torch with temperatures surging into the 50's. Though clouds could break for some sunshine, the chance for showers continues. 

Sunday's 50-plus temperatures is the first of what we expect will be a few days with very excessive March warmth. Each of the next three days of the week (at least) are likely to see readings in the 50's with and 1-2 days could exceed 60. The middle part of next week has an elevated risk where, higher winds, very warm temperatures and rain spur a rapid melt off. Still some time to alter this evolution and I am aware of some events on the mountain we would certainly like to keep some snow around for. Ensembles have come around to the idea of a more favorable winter weather jet stream picture for the middle of the month. We don't totally calm some of the anger coming out of the Pacific, but we do get pretty neutral while operational models continue to show the return of some colder air prior to the weekend of March 14th and 15th.   

 

 

Very warm pattern still headed our way after some snowfall late Tuesday

Sunshine is allowing temperatures to eclipse expectations for Saturday. The southwesterly flow almost always brings in the mild air and the blue skies just make that daytime mixing process more efficient. It does not change expectations for the incoming arctic air however which arrives Saturday evening and will make Sunday a blustery and cold start to March. Readings will hover in the low teens with clouds and a period of light snowfall in the morning. We had moment when yesterday when I thought this snowfall could produce a few inches, but models are back in the dusting to an inch camp before skies clear late Sunday setting up for a subzero night. 

Monday's temps are much warmer though its a fantastic bluebird day. One of those will you will have a hard time finding any cloud and with low wind, a 15 degree temperatures doesn't feel that bad after a 5 below start.  The clear skies are indicated to persist for early Tuesday and this allows for another cold near zero morning before readings quickly recover toward the freezing mark with increasing clouds. Those clouds will bring our overrunning snowfall that I was hoping for. It begins Tuesday evening and it generally looked like a 3-6 inch snow falling over the course of about 6 hours or so. The European model has a little more punch to this system though as of early Saturday and would suggest we could squeeze more than 5 out of this storm prior to Wednesday's ski day. It does not look a particularly cold storm and we aren't far from the wintry mix. That said we should retain enough residual cold to keep readings just under 30 while the snow is falling on the mountain. The snow could be on the wetter side in the valley. 

The weather pattern still suggests the massive onslaught of warmer weather begins Wednesday. Models are are little slower translating this warmth to surface warmth at least this week.  Wednesday is still a mild day with readings rising into the 40's following the snowfall and Friday could see the thermometer advance toward 50 before some residual low level chill from Canada arrives later in the day. Rain or even some areas of freezing rain are then possible Friday ahead of what will be a very mild first full weekend of March.  Most of the wet weather appears lined up for Friday though it still looks a little showery over the weekend. We will have to get some more clarity on that since spring skiing is obviously more enjoyable without the rain. High temperatures both weekend days appear as if they could make a run at 50. 

The early part of the next week appears even warmer right now with one or perhaps two 60 degree days in there. Individual operational models suggest some chill returning late in the week, but ensembles maintain a definitive warm signal through the forecast period for now after the arctic blast expected for Sunday and Monday.  

 

Warm pattern looking intense beginning March 5th.

 It's been a season of mostly positive updates and a lot of upside surprises. I don't recall having to post a blog update quite like this one in quite a while. The EPO, a trusted ally for much of the season, turned on us a few week ago. We got a respite that timed itself almost perfectly with the blizzard that impacted southern New England earlier this week, but as we head into March, it's expected to move the wrong direction again and in a big way. We've fought off these head winds quite valiantly so far and will continue to so for a few more days and then the dam breaks around March 5. 

Friday's weather, at least the rain, clouds and low visibility, is now expected to be so far south, that the entirety of New England gets the bluebird special to finish the work week. This one comes with temperatures that almost exactly normal and that includes a cold morning of around 10 degrees and a pleasant afternoon of around 30 degrees. Expect more clouds for Saturday with a mild southwesterly breeze developing capable of sending the thermometer above 40-degrees near the base. Models do indicate some mixed precipitation during the day. It's both brief and relatively light with the precip type highly dependent on elevation. 

It's a very impressive shot of arctic air coming in early Sunday and gusty northwest winds. A dusting of snow is likely to accompany the push of colder weather while much of the actual ski day actually experiences blue skies, those winds I mentioned and temperatures holding in the high teens. The clearing skies sets us up for a bitterly cold Sunday night and perhaps the last subzero morning of the season. Certainly it's the coldest pairing of days we will see in March with Monday's temperatures also remaining in the teens albeit with less wind. 

Our chances for significant snow hinge on what is possible in association with the milder push of air that will begin on Tuesday. Can we establish an overrunning surface worthy of some steady snowfall ? Where is the most likely spot for any snowfall ? How much can actually fall ? These are all questions models are wrestling with as it relates to the weather on Tuesday, March 3rd. As of now, the consensus indication would not suggest any more than a few inches. 

The EPO is expected to surge toward a positive 2 and arctic air is indicated to go into major retreat mode beginning around March 3rd and 4th. It's an adverse teleconnection situation and the long wave jet stream set up looks even worse. Several blow torch days are indicated on multiple forecast models between March 5th and 13th. The setup capable appears capable of producing temperatures well above 50 and maybe even 60. The hard-earned cold weather feedbacks will need to work overtime to mitigate the impacts of this pattern were it to verify. I like the corn horn days though I would prefer a smaller dose this early. 

 

 

 

 

Cold weather fighting off the head winds impressively and should continue to mostly do so for another 10 days

 Conditions are close to what you would find in a hurricane out on Nantucket Monday morning The high winds and low visibility come with snowfall this time. The Cape and Islands region miss out on a lot of snowfall that interior areas of New England get and then once in a  while they just get hammered and no one else can compete. Quite a place for weather all you can do is tip your hat for enduring an epic blizzard. 

 Snow from this storm will mostly miss northern Vermont and the weather impacts are confined to just a day of cloudiness and an uptick in wind speed. Gusty winds and occasional snow flurries are expected to continue into Monday night and early Tuesday and then clouds may break for some afternoon sunshine or a bit of blue sky. We have the positive EPO working against us and in spite of that, we have both winter weather and a surprising amount of cold air in the outlook over the next 10 days. Consistent with tradition in late winter, each day is likely going to feature something a little different thanks to rapidly changing weather maps from one day to the next. 

 A clipper system is expected to bring some accumulating snow in our direction for the ski day Wednesday. The snow is actually expected to arrive close to daybreak Wednesday after a chilly night with single digit temperatures. The weather system has limited moisture and likely results in a 2-4 inch snow. It also accompanies a milder push of air though much of that air won't make it to interior New England. A light accumulation of additional snow is possible prior to the ski day on Thursday before clouds break for some sunshine and temperatures make a run at, but don't exceed, the freezing mark. 

There are a couple of surprising items in this update. The first relates to a stronger storm and area of moisture that is expected to impact the northeast Thursday into early Friday. I can't believe how far south this system has trended on the forecast models given this jet stream. Most of it is currently indicated to miss Vermont and I was more worried about ice with this potential system a few days ago. It would take another late northward shift to put snow from this storm back in play for us and we've certainly and substantially reduced the risk for any rain or ice prior to the upcoming weekend. Friday is chilly with temperatures holding in the 20's and then on Saturday, spring makes an early appearance. Some of the forecast guidance suggests near 40 degree temperatures on the last day of February, but with a few hours of sun and a healthy southwest wind, we could certainly bring readings closer to 50 at the base which would mean a blowing of the corn horn. A few more days can further clarify if that can happen.

The 2nd surprise relates to the buildup of cold in Canada in the face of our angry Pacific jet stream. With the help of some blocking in northeast Eurasia, an impressive area of arctic cold will build across Canada and bring the mild weather on Saturday to a quick end. It's not the coldest weather of the year by any stretch, yet it's certainly colder than what I though was possible in this pattern. Readings might start a bit on the milder side early Sunday and then dramatically drop as the day progresses and that turn to colder weather to start March will certainly be accompanied by wind and quite possibly by snow as well. The bigger question relates to whether that area of cold arriving Sunday can serve as a foundation for a snowfall as we move into the first full week of March. It does not appear like a cold pattern at jet stream level and yet Monday will start with subzero temperatures and then any subsequent push of milder air, increases the risk of snowfall. The longer range indicates an even milder jet stream thanks to an even angrier Pacific. Right now, it appears to be a tougher ask to overcome this setup with arctic air following March 5th or 6th and yet this is not a year to rule out more surprises. 

Massive east coast storm brings blizzard conditions to the coast and may bring a little snow and some wind to our area of Vermont Monday

Just some clouds and occasional light snow for your powdery Saturday. If you've been a weekend warrior and braved some of the bitter cold this year, the temperatures Saturday, which may get close to 30 at the base, will feel quite balmy. Lots of talk about the weather in the northeast for the end of the weekend even if the worst of it misses northern Vermont 

The very maligned American GFS model has taken a beating this year from weather enthusiasts. It's been wrong a lot and without the guidance from other simulations, would have led forecasters very astray many times. There's now a blizzard expected to hit southern New England late Sunday into Monday, an especially crippling event for the Cape and Islands region extending westward to Connecticut and New York City. The GFS has consistently showed this event while other models have been downplaying. It's not likely to materialize exactly as the GFS has suggested, but eventual solution is likely going to be blend of several models, underscoring the importance of taking everything into account and not simply dismissing data because of a batting slump. Northern Vermont will actually squeeze some sunshine and a relatively mild Sunday out of this weather situation. As the area of low pressure is taking shape along the Carolina coast, precipitation and even the clouds will be south and west of us leaving our mountains with a chilly morning and temperatures that will likely climb just above the freezing mark in the afternoon. There's a lot of wind expected with this storm, though Sunday in northern Vermont should remain relatively calm. 

Even if some of the forecast models remain somewhat unaligned, it's a classic bombs away situation for the northeast coastline in a very memorable kind of way. Some of the higher resolution output has our upcoming nor'easter strengthening to about 965 mb south of the Cape and Islands and that's certainly enough to create blizzard-like conditions and increase the chances for power outages. Northern Vermont has appeared out of the way from this storm, but one can never underestimate the northward reach of these monster systems. We know clouds and blustery conditions will certainly get at us Monday and I think its more likely we see a period of snow during the day as well. We would get a fringe benefit type of accumulation in the 1-4 inch range and just watch for some critical last second changes. The worst kind of travel conditions can be expected in eastern Mass for Monday. Wind with heavy snow and near freezing temperatures are some of the worst winter storm conditions to drive in. Any snow will certainly be over in Vermont by Monday evening and should wind down in eastern Mass after 8 PM Monday. 

We can expect some chilly temperatures to go along with the strong winds (and any snowfall for Monday). Readings are likely to hover in the high teens on the mountain. Clouds are then expected to break for a little sunshine on Tuesday though strong winds are expected to remain to go along with even colder temperatures on the mountain between 10-15. The next push of milder air moves in our direction for Wednesday but guess what, it's another fail. Just more clouds and another period of snowfall and another likely accumulation with temperatures holding in the 20's. It appears closer to the freezing mark for Thursday and Friday and yet the trajectory of the another weather system is likely going to keep readings from getting too mild. Snow or a wintry mix seems to be the most likely outcome early Friday after a mostly dry Thursday. 

The weekend consisting of the last day of February and the first day of March appears mild. Even with the adverse EPO however, models are building up an impressive area of arctic air in Canada and some of that is expected to reach New England in early March. Enough I think to keep the winter weather coming. Some milder March-like temperatures are then possible later that week. 

 

 

Late Friday snow looks better with 8-12 expected during the overnight and a little more early Saturday

Thursday turned into an outstanding bluebird day with comfortable temperatures and low wind. Even with readings challenging the freezing mark, the low dewpoints ensure that the snowpack remains mostly unchanged. Meanwhile, the pattern out west has finally allowed for some much needed snowfall and it's been widespread enough to impact multiple states and mountain ranges. Snowfall out west is absolutely vital not only for the water supply but also for electricity generation and  it has to happen now since precipitation in many places gets pretty rare by late spring. Though the pattern has turned, favoring more snow out west and less cold in eastern North America, Vermont is set up for a nice snowfall late on Friday and this update serves to clarify what we can expect. 

The clear skies are expected to continue through at least part of Thursday night allowing temperatures to drop into the low teens. Friday should then consist of some early sunshine before overcast conditions prevail for a good part of the ski day. Our approaching storm appears a little stronger and its certainly quite a beast for folks living within the vicinity of Lake Superior where blizzard conditions have been reported. For us, a decent plume of overunning moisture is headed in our direction and snow should begin within an hour or so of 6 pm Friday. The snow looks heavier and we can expect healthy snowfall rates throughout the evening and well into the overnight. This makes the upcoming Saturday one of the best ski days of the year with 8-12 inches of fresh powder expected by daybreak and perhaps another 2-3 inches before noon Saturday. Flurries could certainly continue into Saturday afternoon, though it primarily appears cloudy with readings in the low 20's on the mountain and northeast winds gusting 10-20 mph. 

A new area of low pressure is expected to form and then strengthen on Sunday eventually moving off the North Carolina coast midday Sunday. This trajectory will keep the snowfall south and west of Vermont on Sunday barring a change. The decaying Great Lakes storm will take up a position in the eastern Great Lakes Sunday and concentrate some light snowfall in that region. Northern New England may actually see some sunshine and this would help boost temperatures from single digit temperatures early in the morning to 30 degrees in the afternoon. The storm will continue to strengthen offshore leaving us with a blustery but seasonable Monday with a mixture of clouds and some limited sun to go along with snow flurries. Tuesday is a slightly colder version of Monday with day time temperatures staying in the teens. Much of the arctic air gets close to New England in this time frame but the core of the cold stays north as it often does with the angrier Pacific jet stream. 

A push of milder air in the middle part of the week could once again fail to deliver a meaningful thaw while possibly bringing us some additional snowfall. The end of next week appears colder with a lower risk of any thaw while seasonable temperatures appear more likely. The first 7-10 days of March continues to appear slightly mild, driven mostly by the lack of high latitude blocking and the positive EPO. The signal is glaring enough to suggest a big melt off however and arctic cold in Canada is indicated to be close enough to keep the door open for some snowfall. 

 

We miss on the first chance for snow on Wednesday while snow late on Friday into Saturday appears more likely

36 hours helped clear the proverbial fog out of the forecast and provide a relatively clear road map to the active weather picture that confronts us over the next 5 days. There's a potential storm to discuss for the end of the upcoming weekend which could push east somewhat innocently over the ocean or eventually become a massive east coast hit in some way. Without the help of a friendly EPO which we've had for much of the season it will be a changeable weather scene in Vermont for the last few days of February and into early March. 

Turns out Wednesday will be a dry day after all.Certainly a lot better than the thaw that had threatened this part of the forecast period for some time. The snow won't be far from us, a narrow corridor falling mostly in the Berkshires and perhaps as far north as extreme southern Vermont. Dry air will win the day in northern Vermont and so much so, that skies are now expected to clear for the latter part of the ski day providing us with a nice clear view of the sunset for Wednesday evening when temperatures are expected to drop to near 10 degrees. The drier and less cloudy trend in the outlook continues through Thursday which is now expected to be mostly bluebird with readings up around 30 degrees on the mountain along with very little wind. Short of a new snowfall, this is an excellent way to avoid the milder temperatures I had been worried about. 

New snowfall is expected before the upcoming weekend. Friday will actually start with a bit of sunshine and temperatures in the teens before clouds overspread all of Vermont and snow begins likely just around the end of the ski day. The system responsible will get a bit stretched out upon its approach with part of the storm trying to reposition in coastal New England, with the original system slowly pushing eastward in the northern Great Lakes region. We should not expect an epic snow event out of this. The initial period should provide us with the heaviest accumulation Friday evening, likely on the order of 3-6 inches. Additional light snow during the day Saturday will certainly help however and bring total storm accumulations over 5 inches though some adjustments to these expectations are likely as we get closer to the event. The mountains should stay safe from any wetter snowfall with readings remaining in the 20's. 

The stretched out nature of this initial storm will turn the Saturday weather map into a rather messy conglomeration of weaker low pressure areas with no real consolidated areas of precipitation. Model consensus or blend of models suggests this to change as the jet stream becomes more amplified on Sunday. A more well defined area of low pressure is expected to develop in southern Virginia, or close to that and potentially detonate as it interacts with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. The storm could prove to be another big hit for coastal big cities, move out over the Atlantic Ocean with a smaller impact or turn north, as some storms do, and become a hit for interior New England. The former two scenarios would not have us get additional snowfall save for a little lingering snow Saturday night. The weekend is safe from any milder temperatures and so are the first three days of next week through Wednesday, February 25th. Some arctic air is expected to make its way into northern New England in the wake of this storm by late on Monday with most of that ski day getting blustery. As I mentioned, this is a changeable weather pattern with milder temperatures possible late next week though models have yet to get conclusive about any potential push of milder air. 

I expect the first week of March to feature at least some milder weather thanks to the EPO and the bottleneck of cold in  western Canada. Mostly it's because March is typically like that unless you get some help from a very supportive weather pattern. I will say for early March that arctic air is expected to encompass most of western and central Canada through at least March 5th and the warm signal over Vermont is present but pretty weak. It's a setup that would allow for a day or two of milder weather as I mentioned while at the same time include more wintry weather and snowfall. March in Vermont ! 

Not much of thaw this week and snow appears more likely though it's tricky to figure out when most of that falls

Took a day and stayed away from looking at any weather. Come back to some terribly obscured details, little model agreement and a complicated 5-day forecast. The one certainty and more dominant theme relates to another successful defense of our winter weather conditions. More specifically, we avoid all the worst components of the upcoming warm weather push and the uncertainty relates mostly to whether or not it will snow in certain periods this week and upcoming weekend and how much. 

It's just a mostly cloudy sky for the President's Day Monday with a light wind and temperatures on the mountain near 30 degrees. Valley locations will make a successful pass of the freezing mark, but with low dewpoints and lighter wind speeds, the milder weather won't alter snow conditions over the higher terrain. Same goes for Tuesday which should feature more clouds and some light snow showers. The altitude should prove even more important for Tuesday when valley spots could reach the 40-degree barrier. 

Wednesday could have been the day to torch and it won't be. Low level cool air arrives in the nick of time and we situate ourselves on the north side of a temperature boundary that is expected to actually push south as the week progresses.  Some clearing is possible late Tuesday with a bit of blue sky lingering into early Wednesday though its a cloudy week overall and most of Wednesday is expected to be such. The question for late Wednesday into Wednesday night relates to snow and whether it occurs and how much. The original Euro model puts us in great spot for some steady snow late Wednesday, setting us up for a powdery Thursday. The consensus of all model output has shifted the snow and precipitation more generally southward leaving us out of the heaviest snowfall. I'll take the tradeoff since the middle part of the week appears to have no wintry mix or rain in the picture and the possibility for accumulating snow continues. Just going to need another day or day and a half to get some additional clarity on the eventual result. 

Any snow early Thursday would again give way to some temporary clearing late in the day. Overnight temperatures are then allowed to drop to near 10 for early Friday and then its a big conglomeration of weather approaching for the weekend with more model dissension. The OG Euro which continues to hit us pretty good (as I mentioned) late on Wednesday confines all of the weekend action to our south. It's done this on successive runs which is notable. Other simulations including the newer Euro AI has a substantial hit late Friday and some additional snow late Sunday into Monday thanks to a potential coastal bomb. Some tepid support for this comes from the GFS and to a lesser degree the Canadian simulation. With this update getting way too in the weeds with model output, one can get the gist of the weather for next week. Not mild enough for a big thaw and cold enough to support some new snow and still hard to tell when most of that will fall. Hopefully that makes sense ! 

Ironically the weather picture for next week or the last 6 days of February seems to be better defined. Some snow or snow showers along with blustery and chilly conditions for Monday. The cold will then linger into Tuesday before another mild threat has emerged for the end of the week. I'll talk more about the outlook for early March in a subsequent update, but I can preface that with the report that we aren't getting a ton of help from the indices right now and and this is not expected to change through the rest of the month. We can thus get a quick burst of chill and certainly get some snow though its harder to sustain colder weather.  

 

 

 

 

 

Comfortable weekend incoming and less thawing and more potential snowing next week

The heavy snow showers on Wednesday combined with the over-performance snow Tuesday evening has created some of the best skiing of the season and we finally can enjoy it without -20 to -40 degree wind chills. Still chilly for Friday, especially in the morning with temperatures not far from zero. Then the February sunshine goes to work and temperatures recover into the 20's with tolerable wind speeds to go along with some terrific visibility. 

Weekend weather has come better into focus this Thursday so we can drill into some finer details and stop speculating as to unlikely possibilities. Clouds and some snow showers appear likely for early Saturday and a dusting up to 2 inches is our expected outcome. Temperatures are expected to remain in the 20's with gusty yet manageable wind speeds. Those clouds should decrease as the day progresses leading to a colorful sunset and a chilly yet seasonable overnight. Sunday appears outstanding with some sunshine, less wind and temperatures recovering to the high 20's. The storm on Monday appears far enough south to keep its cloud shield away from northern Vermont though some warm advection cloudiness is possible as the day progresses. Readings of near 30 degrees Monday will make it feel almost balmy. 

I rather like the direction  next week appears to be headed right now. We've handed in our resignation on cold weather which is fine, but there are varying forms of mild weather and if it's the kind that produces temperatures near the freezing mark with snow falling, we'd certainly sign up for that. Storminess will get rather consolidated across the Rocky Mountain west early next week with much needed snowfall in the northern Rocky Mountains while arctic cold is bottled up over western Canada. MRG will have that aforementioned 30-degree day on President's Day Monday followed by what I think will be a milder day on Tuesday with readings testing the freezing mark. We haven't done that on the mountain since January 14th and if we do it with dry weather and low dewpoints, it will prove rather inconsequential. More cloudiness should then accompany another mild day on Wednesday as an organized storm system approaches. This system does not appear headed deep into Quebec. It's eventual track might actually end up south of Vermont with a push of colder Canadian air providing support for wintry precipitation. Some rainfall remains probable while the prospects for some substantial snowfall has gained some steam with this low level push of cold appearing more robust. Remember in these types of cold years, with ice covering the Great Lakes aggregate at about 50 percent, threatening thaws can suddenly become substantial snows. The time frame on this would be in the Wednesday/Thursday period  with weather conditions drying out for the last full weekend of February. 

It appears the EPO will hold steady in a slightly positive state for the rest of the month while the big feature will be a high latitude block expected to set up in the extreme northeast portion of the Eurasian continent. This will position cold in North America but mostly western North America while New England mostly stays out of the bitter chill. Late February does have a tendency to produce a mild day even in a general period of relatively seasonable weather so I would expect that in the last week of the month along with some sort of additional snowfall.  

Finally a weekend without extreme cold and wind

Our local NBC affiliate suggested that Lake Champlain was 99 percent frozen as of February 9th and I didn't visually spot any open water from the top of Stark Mountain on the early part of a bluebird Tuesday.  One easy way to calibrate the intensity of a cold year is to simply observe the amount of land mines a skier as to dodge at the bottom of Lower A at MRG. If there are none, such as now, Lake Champlain is probably close to or entirely frozen. Freezing the "Sixth Great Lake" is challenging because of its depth and significant since it eliminates a source of moisture that contributes to our seasonal snowfall. The additional snowfall we are expecting Wednesday and Wednesday night will in fact be held down because of the aforementioned ice. There are positive byproducts to freezing this local body of water however and this will come in handy next week when fending off the milder pushes of air that are currently being forecast. 

Tuesday night snowfall came in successfully and light snowfall on Wednesday and Wednesday night should add 1-3 inches to that total.  Temperatures might even get close to the freezing mark in valley locations though this is not expected on the mountain. Conditions are actually expected to turn blustery again by later Wednesday and continue into early Thursday with daytime temperatures closer to 20. We should get some clearing late on Thursday setting us up for a magnificent bluebird Friday with low wind speeds and temperatures recovering to 20 degrees from a morning low of zero.  

Wind and cold have dominated each of the last 3 weekends at MRG and while the upcoming holiday weekend won't exactly be tropical, it will be a lot more comfortable. We can expect some cold morning temperatures both Saturday and Sunday but reasonable daytime conditions with 20's expected Saturday and near 30 on Sunday. Saturday is a little blustery with some snow showers and Sunday appears more likely to feature some sunshine and less wind. Yes, the potential Monday, President's Day storm continues to show up on model simulations and most of those simulations take this system to our south. There's been enough disagreement on the eventual result to keep watch, but I am not of the belief this system is for us. Never say never in this business unless you really mean it and I haven't yet reached that point. 

For the first time since the middle January, northern Vermont will have to fend off a serious push of milder weather for the middle of the week. Milder than average temperatures should prevail for the entirety of the week, but Monday and Tuesday both appear innocuous. We have what we think will just be some clouds for Monday and temperatures in the high 20's followed by the same for Tuesday with readings crossing the 30-degree mark. Clouds are usually a very prominent part of New England weather when milder air attempts to scour the cold out and next week is no exception. It's the precipitation and wind we worry about in this case and a wintry mix or rain is certainly possible Wednesday, Thursday or both. This does not appear to be a storm destined to track way into Quebec however and I have a funny feeling this isn't over. Would not at all surprise me to see a trend where the cold in Vermont is able to hold it's ground and some type of snow is introduced into the forecast along with the wintry mix. 

Ensembles are indicating the reemergence of some upstream blocking in the jet stream for the final week of February. This will push arctic air back toward North America to some degree during this time frame. In this case, the blocking is forecast to set up over northeast Russia near the East Siberian Sea and will send the cold toward western North America first. The Great Lakes and New England could see a piece of this action and some accompanying winter weather though I would not expect the return of bitterly cold temperatures. The door will still be open for an inland runner type storm in this pattern. 

A bit of snow for the upcoming week as we say goodbye to the extreme temperatures and wind chill

Still dealing with some pesky winds to accompany the near zero degree temperatures Sunday. We have some stronger February sunshine to power us through as well and this will certainly help with Monday's weather which is expected to be mostly bluebird and temperatures recovering into the teens. Those winds I mentioned will still be gusting up to 30 mph Sunday and 20 mph on Monday before subsiding Tuesday. Two key indices are both switching signs today with the EPO turning positive and the PNA negative. The EPO in particular indicates a more hostile Pacific jet stream situation for the next two weeks, yet we are certainly safe for the first of those weeks. 

Tuesday's lack of wind and 20-degree temperatures will feel amazing. We start out with a little sun which will quickly give way to clouds and then the snow arrives. The storm in question isn't much to look at, but the warm advection features are excellent at producing snowfall in New England generally and this system will do so for us. Looks like a gentle 3-6 inch snow, mostly late Tuesday evening with some light snow continuing into Wednesday yielding a small additional accumulation. Temperatures will be in the 20's as this is all happening which is certainly a big improvement over the weekend. The week will then finish almost normal. Twenties for daytime temperatures, mostly low teens during the overnight and a little blustery on Thursday. Not expecting much in terms of additional snowfall with clouds and intervals of sunshine both days. 

The American GFS model output continues to sporadically spin up a storm for the President's Day holiday. The latest version as of this update had that happening on the holiday Monday. This particular model has had a absolutely horrible run of it the last several weeks and improvements are not coming given all the cuts made to our various atmospheric research institutions this past year. Fortunately, the European both the AI and OG versions continue to paint a realistic picture of the most likely outcome in the medium range forecast picture. The AI version of the European model did an outstanding job depicting the weather for the upcoming week  which consists of moderating temps but no blowtorch. Anyway, the holiday weekend looks like a fair weather situation. Lots of sunshine and excellent visibility (with storminess confined to areas well south of us) and reasonable temperatures in the 20's during the day and teens at night. Most importantly, the weekend won't feature a ton of wind (I don't think) and each of the last three have had the very cold wind and wind chill impact to deal with. 

The thaw threat is certainly alive for week 2 after the President's Day holiday. If it were to happen, it would likely be a middle of the week issue and a short term problem. I seen it going one of two ways. A bad scenario where we get torched for a day with some accompanying wind and rain. A failed warm up where the weather consists of clouds, near 30-degree temperatures and some snow or a wintry mix. Many cold winters in Vermont, such as the one we are living through, do not give in to mild weather easy. We have deep snow cover, 50 percent ice coverage on the Great Lakes, almost 100 percent ice coverage locally on Lake Champlain. These are cold feedback mechanisms that tend to work in the favor or more winter weather. That said, I would place my bet on the mostly failed warm up during the time frame in question and it will certainly be interesting to see how it plays out. 

Got a couple hours early Saturday to enjoy the new snowfall before the wind and bitter cold arrives

Another weekend arriving and another bombing offshore storm will have a big say on weather conditions. In the meantime, we start out chilly Friday and then temperatures moderate under increasing cloudiness. Wind speeds will stay tolerable and readings in the teens will make it feel rather nice and a striking contrast to weather conditions Saturday. The clipper system dropping over New York state will spread light snow over Vermont Friday night. I expect 2-4 inches of of the light and fluffy stuff and then continued light snow through much of the ski day. I've got a very important clarification or call to make regarding this. If you plan to ski Saturday, get out early. We have a few hours until about noon where wind speeds will be manageable and temperatures will hover in the 5-10 degree range. In the afternoon winds are expected to increase dramatically and this will coincide with a big drop in temperatures. I expect readings to finish the day below zero. Meanwhile, we can expect another 2-4 inches of snow during the day Saturday and perhaps an additional inch Saturday night ahead of what will be a cold mostly subzero Sunday. I was hoping winds would diminish Sunday yet they will continue to be blustery throughout the ski day. 

This is the last blast of intense chill for a while I think with the EPO change forcing a retreat and repositioning of the arctic cold. All that said, winter in Vermont will hold its ground through the 2nd week of the month. Monday starts out cold before recovering into the low teens thanks to bluebird weather. Tuesday should be a milder version of Monday. Pushes of milder weather, especially those that ultimately fail to bring said mild weather to Vermont often result in some snowfall and I expect we see some around the Wednesday time frame. This does not appear to be a significant storm and I still think several inches are possible. The end of the week does not appear to have any material mild threats with garden variety temperatures expected consisting of 20's for highs and near 10 for overnight lows. 

At the current time, the longer range ensembles are confining the storminess on the President's Day holiday offshore. We continue to see models sporadically show a storm around that weekend, but the Davis Strait block is shown to migrate closer to the Hudson Bay in that time frame which supports more of a fair weather jet stream for New England. Temperatures on the mountain should remain below freezing and there is little risk of the bitterly cold temperatures which have dominated the recent weekends such as the upcoming one. 

The adverse impacts of the EPO continue to elevate the risk of milder temperatures in the third week of February. Ensembles have yet to indicate or warn of a blowtorch however. For now it looks like a standard run of above normal temperatures which, at face value, is certainly something we can handle.  

Bitterly cold this weekend with some accompanying snow and then the chill relents

Piggybacking off the last update, I am going to savor the moment on our snowfall. We are in 10th place at the Mt Mansfield snowstake with terrific snow quality and the west has been hurting for most of the season. I had mentioned the snowiest spots in Colorado and Utah as a reference point. Another would be Tahoe, a place that has also struggled this year and one of the highest resorts there, Mt Rose, is roughly even with MRG on seasonal snowfall. The EPO is now expected to a big turn however and spend a good chunk of February in positive territory. We saw this trend commence over the weekend and it has been validated in a decisive way in the subsequent modeling. After an intense blast of cold this weekend, most of the rest of this month won't feature too much arctic cold. We still have some supportive blocking in the Davis Strait region which will help with storm trajectory, but the pattern will certainly allow for sporadic milder days and little extreme cold after Monday morning. 

Residual cold weather following the recent polar vortex drop continues to deliver cold weather for Vermont. As opposed to the wind that we dealt with much of last week, the weather now would be more comparable to western ski areas with the magnificent  blue skies, great visibility, cold overnights and comfortable afternoons. Clouds and light snow return for very early Wednesday with 1-3 inches of fluff around first tracks time. Blue skies are then expected to return later in the day and we should expect that to continue into Thursday with readings again in the teens and a bit more wind than what we had early this week. 

We have a bit more clarity now with weekend weather and there is quite a bit of it. A potent clipper system will drop southeastward and bring with it a very intense and very direct shot of arctic cold. We also have some snowfall though the ski day on Friday appears dry. Friday will actually start out sunny and subzero with temperatures again moderating to the middle teens with increasing cloudiness and tolerable wind speeds. Snow then begins late Friday evening. Limited moisture from the clipper will get enhanced by a very favorable wind off the mostly but not entirely frozen Lake Champlain. I would expect 4-8 inches of windblown powder on Saturday with challenging elements. Temperatures are likely to spend all of Saturday below zero with sustained winds of up to 30 mph with higher gusts. Clouds should break for sunshine on Sunday with temperatures close to -15 in the morning and recovering to about 5 above in the afternoon. 

I've spent a considerable amount of time analyzing the very fluid weather situation next week. We are losing the support of a friendly Pacific jet stream and the coldest core of arctic air will recede northward and westward. There are models suggesting we torch for a day next week though the consensus indication is that winter will hold its ground across Vermont and other portions of northern New England. We have the continued support of downstream blocking and we have the added benefit of some cold feedback mechanisms given the amount of ice covering the Great Lakes aggregate (for one). It's the most since 2015. I've been interested in watching the performance of the European AI model, a close, new relative of the OG European model and though it suggests temperatures get up close to freezing a few times, we get a snowy week out of htis whole deal. I like that scenario obviously, but it's early. We know Monday will remain chilly with temperatures moderating into the teens following the weekend blast of arctic cold. The middle part of next week is then likely to be cloudy with temperatures just below the freezing mark and a good chance for some accumulating snowfall. A more organized storm system is then likely to approach around the beginning of the holiday weekend. We won't have the benefit of arctic cold and I still like our odds that we can score some snow out of whatever happens. 

I've been downplayed the risk of a thaw through the first half of February and I although I think this holds, I lose confidence as we move into the 2nd half of the month. We can't fight an angry Pacific forever and eventually it's likely to get us. We also begin to move temperature climatology in a significantly upward direction for the 2nd half of the month. Nothing wrong with a little warm weather if we can keep the wind and dewpoint temperature down and needless to say, the rain away. 

 

February looking less arctic overall with chances for snow coming late this week and again next week

 Happy 5 PM sunset ! Along with the change in months comes a little more light, about 3 minutes per day if you're keeping score at home. And we're going to get the opportunity to see a few sunsets in this stretch of dry weather which is set to persist a few more days. Our nor'easter is bombing away offshore, having deposited 6 or more inches of unusally skiable powder in eastern North Carolina and leaving us with some Sunday sunshine and temperatures in the teens. Winds will be steady out of the northwest though they could have been considerably worse had the storm been closer to shore. 

Sunday will follow with a terrific bluebird Monday. Calm winds over a deep snow cover will allow temperatures to start well below zero before that sun goes to work and we sniff the 20-degree mark for the first time in a while on the mountain and it's a similar story for Tuesday. The afternoons both days should feel fantastic thanks to lower wind speeds to go along with that sunshine.  

More clouds should return for Wednesday and with the overcast comes some light snow. There's a cold push associated with this snow and this will bring temperatures from the 20-degree mark on Wednesday back into the low teens for Thursday followed by a cold Thursday night. A direct shot of arctic chill is poised to envelop Vermont for another weekend and the storm system bringing this cold is intriguing, a bombing type clipper system. Much of the energy and precipitation may fall south of Vermont though we do seem to be lined up for at least a light snow and possibly more. The snow would arrive for the back half of the ski day Friday as temperatures again recover toward the 20-degree mark, and continue through the overnight. Saturday the 7th looks blustery and frigid with temperatures on the mountain likely near to below zero. Sunday will then feature thoses subzero temps in the morning followed by some recovery during the day.   

The weekend cold on February 7th and 8th is intense, isolated to New England and quite temporary. By Monday, February 9th, temperatures will moderate across the region and the week as a whole may end up featuring a round of above normal temperatures with readings challenging the freezing mark a few times in valley locations. The thaw threat continues to appear low with the Davis Strait block anchored in place and the relaxing jet should send a storm in our direction. This appears most likely during the middle of the week. 

One of the key aspects of this update involves the gradual loss of PNA/EPO support upstream. The jet in the Pacific is expected to get a little fiery by around the 10th of the month and this should mean some much needed snow in the Rocky Mountains. To say it's been a miserable snow year out west is an understatement. Mad River Glen has double the seasonal snowfall as Telluride, DOUBLE !! We are ahead of Wolf Creek, CO and running about even with Alta in Utah. That's just incredible, two of the snowiest places in the country. Those guys will finally get a supportive pattern and a chance to exert themselves a bit. Across the interior northeast, we will need to rely on the blocking in the pattern and the support of some home grown cold in eastern Canada because I don't think it's going to be an especially arctic month with the exception of the upcoming weekend.  

Bombs Away !! Big storm offshore is strong enough to hold my attention, but too far east to produce any Vermont snowfall this weekend

Bombs away

Well, I guess I'm back in love again

Well, hey now, and around we go

This will bring me ruin 

Though I suppose it's pleasing 

I've changed the eyes I gaze in 

Still, she's just another girl

And I'll need more than a trade in 

Guess I'll have to change the world  

 

 This Bobby tune, and I really do love the guy, is the song that always comes to mind when a bombing nor'easter enters into our weather discussion. I think the song is decent overall, having grown on me in recent years after a slow start. One of Weir's best and certainly overlooked song constructions might be the song Two Djinn which came to being in his post-Jerry band Rat Dog. Fantastic album overall actually called Evening Moods and it's out of print so if anyone has a copy I'll take it. 

 

Back to the bombing nor'easter, it is absolutely mesmerizing to look at on a weather map yet it remains a miss for Vermont and most of New England. The storm will take shape near Cape Hatteras early on Saturday and get a full detonation over the Atlantic, deepening to at least 968 mb (hurricane level strength, though less consolidated) while passing about 200 miles or so east of Cape Cod. This may or may not be close enough to spread some blizzard conditions to the Cape and Islands. It is certainly not close enough to bring snow to the remainder of New England barring a major last minute shift. Storms of this magnitude have the tendency to suck all the energy out of a room, unless you're in the energy. This means a dry weekend is coming our way which will include some sunshine and excellent visibility. Temps will start out at 10 below Saturday and then recover to almost 10 degrees. Sunday's temperatures may warm a few degrees but the proximity of the aforementioned storm will turn up the volume on wind speed so plan for that. 

 

We remain chilly for the first full week of February with temperatures on a few afternoons reaching the 20-degree mark. Except for flurries and lighter snow showers, most of the period will be dry since the unsettled part of the jet stream is expected to stay situated south of us. We see changes in this regime very late in the week and could have an interesting weather situation to deal with in the Friday, February 6th to Saturday, February 7th time frame. A lesser surge of arctic air to go along with a robust looking clipper system will combine to create another storm opportunity for us. The weekend in question is also likely to be windy and cold again whether we get some significant snow or miss most of it. 

 

The 2nd full week of February still has a nice look to it with the jet stream blocking through the Davis Strait offering us some protection against any potential thaw and creating an environment conducive for east coast storms. We lose a bit of life toward the middle of the month from the negative EPO though the index remains favorable throughout the period. We have it going right now and one of the most important aspects to keeping this train moving is thaw avoidance and this current outlook is cooperating in that regard. 

 

 

First half of February looks excellent with less intense cold next week and good storm potential thereafter.

 We have a nice little visit form the polar vortex late this week. The feature is actually expected to weaken and then drop over the eastern Great Lakes on Friday and then help to spin up a weather feature for the weekend. More on that in a bit. The cold weather in Vermont peaked last weekend but will remain very chilly with wind for the rest of the week and the weekend. Temperatures will start out each of the next three days (Wednesday, Thursday and Friday) a shade below zero and rise to the 5-10 degree range on the mountain (15 in the valley) Wednesday and Thursday and then only 0-5 on Friday. The wind is expected to create a material chill factor during the whole period blowing 10-20 mph. Snowfall will be limited to flurries for the rest of the week. 

The weekend weather map sure is interesting. The PV feature I mentioned will spin up a strong area of low pressure that is expected to deliver parts of eastern North Carolina and even  Cape Hatteras an unusual snowfall. This type of setup, especially with the polar jet weakening, can mean that a storm like this can move up the coast and be a big snow producer for the northeast. There are models that are showing this to an extent, but I am feeling increasingly confident the effects of this will miss Vermont (except for the wind). The storm probably stays offshore following the North  Carolina hit and this will mean a weekend featuring sun, wind and moderating daytime temperatures that actually might make the teens both days. It's worth keeping an eye on though I do consider this the most likely outcome. 

We haven't had a chance to discuss February weather too much with the short term and wintry weather situation consuming much of our attention. In short the first half of the month looks excellent. The storminess in the Pacific is never fully going to eliminate the negative EPO which has largely powered this exceptional winter we've had so far. With the PV expected to weaken and move south this weekend, the cold will relent somewhat, but the east coast and especially New England is expected to remain cold. Can we make use of that cold and produce some snowfall ? Possibly, though that appears more likely as the week progresses and not on Monday and Tuesday, the 2nd and third of the month. 

The 2nd full week of February looks interesting. The jet in the Pacific remains supportive while a blocking mechanism develops in the jet stream over the Davis Strait and becomes one of the dominant features for the entire Northern Hemisphere. I get the sense that this is not a setup that will necessarily produce an arctic outbreak and rather a rather multiple stormy scenarios for many places including us. Best of all, the risk of a thaw appears quite low and we wouldn't want one of those disrupting the excellent run we've been on. 

Just a beautiful cold powder day Monday and very chilly balance of the week accompanied by wind

Hope folks enjoyed the beautiful cold gentle snow we got Sunday evening. Winds were pretty ferocious closer to the coast while on the periphery of the storm such as our spectacular location, we saw a nice gentle wind to accompany the snowfall. It doesn't happen often and at these subzero temperatures, it may have gone unnoticed. 

Snow will continue throughout Monday and will generally fall at a lighter intensity. Some of the higher resolution model data suggests that this lighter snow in the morning will actually intensify a bit as the ski day progresses. Winds are expected to pick up just a bit, blowing in a favorable northwesterly direction which will help enhance some of that lingering moisture. We have a slight improvement to report on temperatures which are now expected to climb to about 10 (no such luck on the upper mountain, I am afraid). Still looking at a storm. total of over a foot and likely in that 18-24 inch range. Most of it will fall before the ski day begins while 4-8 can be expected throughout the day. 

The polar vortex is expected to spin its way into southeastern Canada, with a weakened version dropping right over northern Vermont late this week. The cold has in fact peaked already, having done so on Saturday into early Sunday though the pattern and the presence of the vortex will continue to support some extreme chill and we can also expect an increase in wind. Some light snow is likely late on Tuesday and more flurries for the balance of the week bringing a light accumulation at most. Theme for the rest of the week appears to be dry and cold and we can expect some significant wind chill to go along with intervals of sunshine. The warmest afternoon appears to be Tuesday with maybe a high close to 10 degrees. Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will see readings generally below 5 above on the mountain along with that wind I mentioned which will likely be 25 mph in exposed areas. 

The remnants of this vortex of cold is expected to turn the pattern very amplified this weekend, generating a storm that for now is indicated to stay offshore. If this remains the case, the January 31 to February 1 weekend could be sunny with temperatures moderating slightly to the 10-15 category. It's also possible, not likely that the storm hugs the coast and becomes a factor in our weather picture, providing additional snow. 

The first full week of February is expected to feature a temperature moderation and I would expect some opportunities for snow. Parts of the country should get a chance to thaw out and melt some snow in early February, but I don't see that as a likely scenario in Vermont.  

 

 

Big storm isn't leaving Vermont out of the snow party with 1-2 cold feet expected for late Sunday into Monday

Welcome back for another beautiful winter weather update. Temperatures are plummeting across the state of Vermont Friday evening and Mother Nature is poised to provide us with one hell of a ride as far as winter weather goes.I have very few changes through about Monday, just a bit more clarity and detail so lets get to it. 

 Bluebird weather, terrific visibility and 10-25 mph winds (depending on the exposure) accompany the -10 to -20 degree temperatures we are set to experience Saturday. Prepare accordingly and I can't imagine any of this would take skiers by surprise at this point. Winds will subside enough under clear skies to produce what could be the coldest night of the year for many local residence. Expect a few 20 below readings before a few hours of morning sunshine boost temperatures a bit upward. 

Snow is expected to arrive for us in the 1-3 pm time slot Sunday. It is one of the coldest storms in  over a decade not only for Vermont, but for the multitude of states it is expected impact with snow, sleet and ice. For us, it's all cold, cold snow with temperatures not venturing far from zero degrees late Sunday. We won't be able to match the snow intensity that is likely to occur in states like Massachusetts or Connecticut, instead, we get the longer duration. The northward shift came to life with this storm as the coastal low pressure center that is expected to take shape Sunday and move pretty close to Long Island before exiting to the east on Monday. This is plenty far enough for moisture to extend northward in our direction and the best part relates to the decaying surface feature which will continue depositing fluffy snow over us throughout the ski day on Monday. What a dream ! 

I am ready to put snowfall totals in that 1-2 foot category. About 2-4 of this appears destined to fall late in the ski day Sunday. Steady snow then continues to fall Sunday night depositing an additional 6-10 inches by first tracks time on Monday. Then we get the bonus ! The decaying original low pressure center which will appear like a slight inverted surface wave will keep the snow flying on Monday even as the rest of the country gets a nice dose of cold sunshine. These features can get interesting and produce localized deformation bands of snow that can make someone very lucky. Though it's hard to pinpoint those, it's easy to see the weather map will produce another 4-8inches of snow and this still could be conservative. Either, the snow consistency will be be fluffy and delicious. Very high likelihood this is the premier day of the season so far so long as you are ok with temperatures close to zero degrees on the mountain and a respectable 15-25 mph wind north wind with higher gusts. 

More lighter snowfall is now expected on Tuesday after a respite Monday night. This comes from a clipper system crossing the eastern Great Lakes. Temperatures are still expected to be very chilly and perhaps only a few degrees above zero while winds will continue to be a factor. There's a better chance to see sun as the week progresses while temperatures remain bitterly cold. Expect readings in the single numbers on the mountain Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Like many arctic air masses, this one also appears a bit too stable to produce heavy snow showers, though winds are favorable and still could bring lighter snow showers to the mountain on any or all of these days. We will certainly make a run at freezing Lake Champlain for the first time this decade once January concludes. I should point out that we expect winds to continue to bring very low wind chills to the mountain. Conditions will be amazing but dress for 30 below wind chills at least. 

Temperatures are expected to moderate slowly on January 31st and February 1st (This being the subsequent weekend) and that trend is expected to continue into early February. There are no indications of a thaw though and several models have been spinning up storms in what remains a somewhat amplified pattern, especially on that weekend I just mentioned. Any time the polar jet is involved, changes in the weather forecast can come quickly. Often times, a big east coast storm can materialize just as the arctic pattern relaxes and this appears to be such a situation. The first full week of February is likely to be wintry with temperatures much closer to normal. This being closer to 20 degrees for a higher and 5-10 for a low. 

Let's add some signifcant snowfall to this cold weather story !!

 The best magic trick I know would be tell you all that the bitterly cold weather we are bracing ourselves for is going to limit snowfall. Conventional wisdom only takes you so far however and inevitably the weather finds a way to produce some sort of unique outcome. This appears to be headed in that direction. While a powerful polar jet quite often does limit snowfall in January across northern Vermont by bringing both a stable boundary layer and suppressing the storm track, there's always an open door, especially along the east coast. 

We also have some lighter snowfall in the short term. Clipper system brings some Wednesday evening amounting to about 2-3 inches for the ski day Thursday. This was more or less in accordance with expectations. The snow shower setup during the day on Thursday appears very much improved. We don't have the benefit of the most favorable wind direction (this being northwest), but the atmospheric profile appears very unstable for January. Even with the west wind, we should be able to produce a few good bursts of snow on the mountain and some additional accumulations of 1-3 inches. The snow showers will in fact continue through half of Friday producing an additional light accumulation before the blast of arctic cold shuts it all down late Friday afternoon. Friday's arctic cold will come in hard and fast and temperatures will move lower very quickly, likely reaching subzero levels Friday evening. Until then however, the forecast is snowier and temperatures should reach the 20's on Thursday and may start closer to 15 early Friday before falling off the cliff late in the day. 

Bluebird weather for Saturday and bitterly cold with gusty northwest winds for most of the day. It's lining up to be the coldest actual day this decade. We had a day in early February 2023 which was 10 to 20 below for much of the ski day before temperatures warmed during the evening to about 10 above. This Saturday we can expect 10 to 15 below zero on the mountain during the ski day and no such warming Saturday evening. Readings could reach 20 below in a few valley locations Sunday morning before some morning sunshine pushes readings toward zero degrees during the afternoon. 

The big story though has evolved from simply just cold weather and now includes snow for many more places including Vermont. Yes, the northward shift is back and has arrived early enough for a happy Wednesday update.  The polar jet has arrived as advertised and many times it might just overpower the pattern and suppress all storms and yet the southeast ridge is still there and appears destined to poke it's nose up the east coast late this weekend before vanishing. It does so just as a piece of the polar vortex is driven out into the open Atlantic Ocean. We thus have an open door and multiple areas of low pressure, one in eastern Kentucky and another off the Virginia coast midday Sunday, sending cold moisture in our direction. It will be a sizable winter storm and a cold one for the entirety of the east coast, probably the coldest storm this decade. New York City will get a big accumulation of snow and probably some sleet as well while snow is could arrive in  Vermont (our part of Vermont) by midday Sunday. It's rather incredible and somewhat ironic, because we are situated pretty well for this. The coastal storm is expected to exit stage right by Monday leaving the remnants of the inland low pressure area and an associated area of moisture over the Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains for Monday. It's early and there are models that keep much of the snowfall to our south still,but the trend is our friend right now. 10-20 inches or something like that is suddenly quite reasonable and this looked very dry just two days ago. 

It remains very cold in the wake of the Sunday/Monday snow, assuming that trend remains our friend. Though temperatures will be below zero on a few of those mornings next week, I do think the cold is set to peak in that late Friday to early Sunday time frame (this weekend). The cold next week will feature temperatures in the +5 to +15 range for most of the ski days and many of today days will have gusty winds. Models have been spinning up another storm late next week in response to an amplifying jet stream. Arctic patterns do favor coastal hits over inland hits, yet as this weekend is set to prove, you just never know. 

Arctic air is expected to weaken it's grip in early February for much of North America while likely remaining a factor for New England. That part of the forecast appears colder as well.  

Bitterly cold arctic air expected to limit snowfall through the middle of next week

If your a fan of colder weather, please take a moment and enjoy the update you are about to receive. I took more than a few moments myself to look back at some of the colder multi-day periods I can remember in Vermont  just to see if we might be able to compete with some of those and we might. We just celebrated the 30 year anniversary of the blizzard of '96, a storm that missed Vermont entirely. In spite of that, we had deep snow that December into early January and became the main target for the cold air that supported that east coast blizzard. For almost a week, temperatures across the northern Vermont high country stayed below zero. We had a similar long duration cold wave hit us late in 2017 right after Christmas. It was the only recent Christmas holiday going back 20 years without a thaw and the skiing on Christmas was fantastic. Then we got about 5-6 consecutive days of sub-zero weather on the mountain to carry us into early 2018. We've actually had more 1-2 day cold waves that have hit us, even in some of the recent warmer years so to really stand out as something memorable, we will have to stay in the deep freeze for 3 or more days. I have not forgotten February 2015 also which was cold that sustained itself for over a month. Though, it looks a little different than the 2015 weather, the cold will have some lasting power. 

MLK holiday was also quite chilly but this is not the type of intense cold I am talking about. We get a tease on Tuesday (Jan 20th), yet the airmass in question will have a chance to modify after going over the relative warmth of the unfrozen Great Lakes and temperatures are likely to stay in the single numbers (the positive side). Expect westerly winds to be gusty with flurries and snow showers, much like the weather saw on the mountain last Friday only this time, we aren't expecting much in the way of snowfall. Maybe around an inch Monday night with more in the Stowe to Jay corridor. Sunshine and below zero temperatures will start us off on Wednesday and then clouds will envelop the state and light snow will develop very late in the ski day. This is a respectable BC clipper system and a cold pattern overall and somehow we end up in the drier and warmer quadrant of what is a moisture-starved system anyway. Still, we are still capable of scoring 2-4 inches Wednesday night into the day Thursday. Temperatures will also moderate in that period rising to about 20 on Wednesday afternoon, warming into the mid 20's Wednesday night and then holding just below 30 most of Thursday. Enjoy that because the deep freeze arrives Friday. 

Unfortunately, these types of polar jet dominated situations limit snowfall. They have the propensity to stabilize the lower troposphere while pushing the storm track southward. I am operating under the assumption that both are likely beginning this weekend. Still, we have the favorable wind direction and an unfrozen Lake Champlain and this might be enough for some wind driven light snow showers Friday. The big story is the wind chill and increasing cold throughout that day. It's one of those situations where the high temperature will be set at midnight, a meaningless statistic that doesn't reflect the weather during the ensuing day, temperatures near 10 at sunrise and then likely below zero by sunset. 20-30 mph winds will make that feel considerably colder. We should then be able to keep readings below zero all day Saturday with similar wind speeds. Maybe the Champlain Valley can inch above zero while readings on the mountain will be closer to 10 below. A possible Mid-Atlantic snowstorm is brewing for Sunday while Vermont should stay dry and cold. Temperatures might reach zero on the mountain and the bigger relief should come in the form of relaxing wind speeds. 

Light snow is possible on Monday (Jan 26th) as the cold is reinforced, but I think snow accumulations are minimal again. The cold weather will continue to be the story with temperatures likely staying below 10 through Wednesday (Jan 28). After a respite from the wind on Sunday into Monday, more wind can be expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Ensembles show a strong signal for an east coast snowstorm later next week. Though its not a pattern that would support such a storm venturing too far northward and impacting Vermont, the pattern does start to relax as the week progresses and gives us at least a chance. 

I also continue to see some discussion about a pattern flip to warmer weather in February and I would disagree with those assertions. The intensity of arctic cold will relent considerably as the month flips to February and the nature of the jet stream in the Pacific is certainly expected to shift to a stormier one. With that said, there's continued to support for winter weather across the northeast quadrant of the US and much of SE Canada. 

Multiple outbreaks of cold of increasing intensity for the upcoming week along with lighter snows

Took a little longer than expected, but Mad River Glen did score the coveted Lake Champlain fluff late on Thursday and Thursday night and the mountain is coming out of this week in pretty good shape. Temperatures were stuck near 10 degrees Friday afternoon and this begins a pattern that will ensure plenty of arctic chill is impacting both New England and much of eastern North America. 

Expect a snowy day Saturday as a clipper system in the Great Lakes brings its limited moisture in our direction. Southwesterly flow will help moderate temperatures substantially and skiers can expect afternoon readings in the 20's along with respectable 10-20 mph winds. Snowfall will be mostly light and begin before dawn and then continue through much of the ski day. Storminess off the Atlantic Coast will help make for a dry Sunday with breaks in the overcast. Winds will be similar though a bit more westerly as opposed to southwesterly and temperatures will be about 5 colder than Saturday. 

Those westerly winds become a little stiffer for MLK day as some early sunshine gives way to cloudiness. Snow showers are expected, but they appear most likely after the ski day Monday with that early sun helping to boost temperatures up to around 20 degrees at the base. The arctic front roars through Monday night bringing with it a light accumulation of snow and near zero degree temperatures for Tuesday morning. We can expect some sunshine to go along with single digit temperatures on Tuesday and those generally clear skies are expected to persist until early Wednesday before warm advection cloudiness envelopes the region. Those clouds will help keep temperatures in the teens for the middle of the week and most importantly will also bring some snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday. This is the result of a weak area of low pressure that will make every effort to strengthen some and grab what little moisture is available. It's also expected to mark the advance of a reinforcing, stronger shot of arctic chill for Friday ahead of what we expect to be a cold last full weekend of January. Important to leave some room for forecast alterations late in the week. The southeast ridge will get mostly overwhelmed with arctic cold, but is still present and capable of spinning up more storminess Friday into Saturday. Much of that is likely to get aimed farther south with polar jet on top of us while cold is more likely to win both days. That said, I'll leave a little room there for a surprise. 

The big story, beginning Friday Jan 23rd, will be the bitterly cold arctic air, the strongest of the season most likely. If we can Friday up to about 10 degrees we are doing well; after that, it looks like we will have to endure a stretch of subzero weather that could last longer than a day. Not totally sure if that's a Saturday/Sunday (24th-25th) issue or a Sunday/Monday (25th-26th) issue and either way, all three days will be extremely cold and accompanied by some significant wind and have a wind chill factor worth preparing for. Models are suggesting a favorable wind direction for snow showers yet cold like this mostly comes at us with a shallow and very stable atmospheric temperature profile. This means we get some good visibility and blue sky to accompany the bitter chill. 

Teleconnections support from both the EPO and AO are the driving fundamentals supporting the pattern at least at jet stream level. Toward the end of January, ensembles are predicting the mid-latitude Pacific to get very stormy which is a change from the next two weeks. Because much of this storminess is expected at lower latitudes, it's not expected to shift the EPO into a more adversarial position. We are also expected to retain some support from the AO. There appears to be some thinking out there that would suggest a capitulation of arctic cold in early February and I don't see evidence of that yet. If the aforementioned Pacific storminess, undercuts the ridging in western North America and produces split flow, we will certainly see wintry conditions continue to dominate the Great Lakes and New England. 

 

 

Snow showers Thursday begin a long stretch of cold weather accompanied by some snowfall

But it's all right cause I love you, and that's not going to change 

Run me around and make me hurt again and again 

But I'll still sing you love songs, written in the letter of your name

The rain is gonna come, oh it surely looks like rain 

 

 

 And rain it did late Wednesday at low elevations and it had no business doing that in this storm. The lack of arctic cold and the southwesterly flow blow torch that occurred pushed temperatures well in to the 40's across all valley areas of Vermont. Models have had a very poor handle on the track of this storm yet in terms of snow accumulation it should work out ok. Temperatures have remained below freezing above 2,500 feet and snow will continue to fall Wednesday night while mixed precipitation changes to snow Thursday morning in the valley areas. The projections for this latest storm have shifted this way and that and the difficulties pinning the track down stem the interactions with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. Every storm is sensitive to the presence of the Atlantic Ocean and an area of convection in one place verses another can change the whole game and certainly can sway a forecast model one way or another. All that said, we'll still manage some snow out of all this, over 6 inches by the end of the day Thursday above the mid-station, 3-6 inches below the mid-station and about 1-3 in valley areas. The snow should continue through much of the ski day Thursday. It will be wet at the start of the day and turn powdery as temperatures fall toward 20 by the end of the day. 

 

The chill returns for Friday with temperatures holding in the low teens. Expect some wind, expect clouds with a few breaks of sun and not much beyond a few snow flurries. Clouds return for Saturday along with moderating temperatures (upper 20's). The weather map is more interesting with a relatively vigorous clipper system in the eastern Great Lakes while another area of low pressure tries to get itself going along the Atlantic Coast. The idea would be for an enhancing area of snowfall to establish itself Saturday afternoon and begin impacting MRG late in the ski day. Some snow would then continue into the overnight and make for a nice powder day Sunday. There's been successive runs of the American GFS model that are spinning up a larger coastal storm on Sunday, but this model has performed atrociously this past week and to quote the movie "Meet the Parents", it is out of my circle of trust right now. If such a storm stays offshore (which seems a bit more likely), it would make for a drier Sunday after some accumulation during the prior overnight. 

 

We got a legitimate outbreak of arctic air coming our direction, mainly after the MLK holiday. Both Sunday and Monday's temperatures should exceed the 20-degree mark during the ski day. A lighter snow accumulation late on MLK day then precedes the much colder air on Tuesday. The shallow, stable nature of this winter cold might put a cap on snowfall but there's two moisture-limited systems being indicated in the midweek period that could bring some accumulation. The more interesting part of the next week weather set up is the reemergence of the southeast ridge and how that might interact with the existing arctic air and then a reinforcing shot expected to arrive very late in the week. Quite possible we could be discussing another storm in the Friday/Saturday January 23rd-24th period. 

 

Another healthy core of arctic air is expected to be well established across Canada for the end of January and there is every indication that a part or perhaps all of it could unload on eastern North America in multiple waves for the last full week of January.  New England has been a good target for these outbreaks this year and there are indications we are getting targeted again. Models have been spinning up storms in this period as well which would suggest that one is possible. The pattern is getting anchored by a supportive (weak) Pacific jet and eventually a pretty significant negative AO setup for the end of the month. 

 

 

Excited for the Thursday and weekend snow setup and a little nervous we see some shifts in the forecast

Holes in what's left of my reason

Holes in the knees of my blues 

Odds against me been increasin' 

But I'll pull through 

Never could read no road map

And I don't know what the weather might do 

But hear that witch wind whinin' 

See that dog star shinin' 

I've got that feelin' there's no time to lose 

No time to lose  

 

 

Wonderful tune Saint of Circumstance that Bob wrote with John Perry Barlow usually attached in live performances with Lost Sailor. I can't swear an allegiance to the part where Bob sings repetitively about the "rain falling down" and fortunately I don't see any of that in this outlook. Though we salvaged the weekend and certainly avoided a worst case meltdown, we didn't get the snow I had hoped for Sunday morning or Sunday night. All that said, we've got some good news this week with the snow situation. Models have been shifting so rapidly and doing so daily that it's pretty difficult to pin the forecast down entirely. You have to operate like additional changes are inevitable. 

 

Though it god colder and more January like to start this week, we don't have the help of arctic air and  have some milder days ahead before the excitement begins. Southwest flow begins to develop Tuesday pushing temperatures in the valley areas above the freezing mark and making for a comfortable ski day on the mountains. Breaks in the overcast are more likely in the morning and midday period and some light snow can be expected in the evening. Models do indicate an accumulation by early Wednesday, but man I hate getting too excited about southwest flow type snow. Let's just call it less than 2 inches and probably of a wetter consistency since temperatures are expected to hover around the freezing mark for much of Tuesday night. On Wednesday we have another day of southwest flow, a mini torch with readings up around 40 in the valley. Clouds should prevent temperatures from getting too excessive and models aren't showing high winds which is positive. 

 

The somewhat mild air hits us ahead of a major and very interesting jet amplification. Models have had a very difficult time sorting out what the weather might do as a result of this jet stream event. For a couple of days, there were indications of a major coastal system and just some limited snowfall for northern Vermont. In the last day or so, models have backed off on the notion of a big city snow and are considerably more bullish snow for us. Just a simple question as how the storm in question intensifies and specifically the speed of  that intensification. Some caution is advised and this is related to all the changes I made mention of above. That said, simulations in the last 24 hours are converging on low pressure developing over eastern New England very early Thursday with an enhancing area of snow in New York state moving over us early in the day. That area of snowfall is indicated to intensify and power us to what could be our heaviest single day of accumulation this season. The winds are just aligned perfectly for some Lake Champlain help and my biggest concern is just another small shift in how this all might evolve so please make note of that. From the standpoint of potential though, this most certainly could bring us a foot of snow mostly during the day and into the evening Thursday. The Friday ski day might have some new snow on the ground, but none is expected during the day, just a standard blustery and pretty normal January day with temps in the teens to near 20. 

 

The excitement doesn't stop there as models suggesting this east coast trough gets reinforced by another potent jet stream impulse. New snow is likely both weekend days with the potential for a more significant accumulation Sunday. The polar jet is involved with this 2nd potential event which means more changes to the forecast are almost inevitable. Mostly, its just trying to gain some clarity on the type of weather event we are dealing with. Can we spin up a big time Miller A type storm that gets everyone including the coastal cities, or is it another garden variety type snow for most of ski country with some frigid arctic cold arriving Sunday night into MLK day. Temperatures do appear generally moderate through Sunday and then I would anticipate single digit temperatures on the mountain for Monday. 

 

It's possible we get hit with some of the coldest weather of the season between late Monday and early Wednesday though details still need some sorting. Later in the week, the southeast ridge fights back, allows the cold to moderate some while increasing the changes for an overrunning type snow event.  I was very encouraged with the teleconnection outlook which continues to show a favorable Pacific jet situation through the duration of January. We don't line up all the teleconnections entirely and I would suggest that we don't really want that this time of the year. Just keep enough cold arctic around to keep the snow flying without suppressing all the action to our south. 

Some snow Sunday night to hopefully start a winning stretch and my own Bobby tribute

Tough day losing Bob Weir, one of the original and best known members and voices of the Grateful Dead. Dead music has become engrained into the spirit of Mad River Glen and can be heard at the mid-station, the basebox and quite often the parking lot. It's been a tough week out there in the world and I had certainly not expected to get hit with this, especially since Bobby had been active and in seemingly good health. Seemed like the 4 winds were destined to blow him and us right through these troubled times or at least help us along for several more years. Lots of great tributes will certainly circulate in the coming days and I'll certainly read as many as possible and in the meantime share my own personal perspective. I've always been fascinated with the relationship time has with music. Specifically how it manages to filter bad music away while allowing the enduring music to do its thing. I saw the Grateful Dead with Jerry in June of 1995 when I was a teenager. Had you asked me then what I thought of the band, I might have dismissively told you they were overrated. The show I saw was unspectacular. Jerry was hurting, often hiding his face or even sitting and the larger stadium made it a rather impersonal experience. Then a few years went by, the internet matured and I started doing deep dives into "archives.org" and the growing list of shows that were being uploaded there. It was just spectacular hearing them through some of those better known peak eras like 1968, 1972-1974 or 1977. Then I got a few more DVDs to get the more visual perspective and I became a fan. The music was there, had been recorded, performed and would gradually get the appreciation from so many including the initial skeptics such as myself. That doesn't happen in music unless you do something original and sincere and perform that material like you really mean it. I loved the troubadour tunes that Bobby was able to add to the Grateful Dead catalog with the help of John Perry Barlow and much like Phil Lesh, who we lost late in 2024, he was able to bring the energy all the way through to the end. What a wonderful life lived and I am certainly grateful to have shared in part of that musical journey. 

Though we were able to turn the weekend colder and get some mixed precipitation that evolved into a bit of snow, I had hoped for an even better outcome, especially since some of the better moisture did find a way to us Saturday night. Early Sunday should feature the sliver of drier weather as the atmosphere turns colder behind the departing and consolidating storm over New Brunswick. This consolidation does bring with it a good window for some snow showers which should develop late Sunday and continue into part of Sunday night. Temperatures should hold in the 20's through much of the day Sunday and then drop into the teens along with some potent northwest winds. The snow shower set up is one of the better ones we've had in a while albeit short-lived and should be good for 3-6 inches for the ski day Monday. The incoming airmass is not especially arctic in nature which helps from an instability perspective. 

Our ski day Monday, January 12th looks like a rather typical January day. A little new snow overnight, a little blustery, chilly with temperatures in the 20's and just some limited sun trying to break through the pesky cloudiness. The next chance for snowfall comes late Tuesday from a vigorous and interesting jet disturbance bringing with an accompanying clipper system our way. Snow should begin after most of the ski day is over and continue into the evening. I might predict more snow and get more excited except I hate that southwest flow over us and would expect snow accumulations to stay on the lighter 1-4 inch side by early Wednesday. This upper air feature means business however and will carve out a massive hole in the jet stream over TN/KY early Thursday. Models are struggling to figure out how a storm might get cooked up out of all this, but more and more simulations are doing just that in various ways. Additional snow this week, mainly on Thursday is likely as a result and I would stay tuned and let the details sort themselves out as to gets what, how much and where. This is not an especially cold week in Vermont with temperatures expected to approach the freezing mark Wednesday before ending the week cold and blustery behind the bombing storm. 

Another jet amplification is certainly capable of producing some snow for MLK weekend before arctic air is reinserted into our forecast picture around the time of Monday January 19th to Wednesday the 21st. The cold appears a bit short-lived on more recent model runs yet retains a presence in Canada even as the cold modifies by the 23rd of 24th of January. I wouldn't guarantee it, but there's a high probability we are beginning a long sub-freezing stretch. 

Lazy lightnin' sleepy fire in your eyes it's like desire in disguise
I keep on tryin' but I, I can't get through
Lazy lightnin' I'd like to find the proper potion
That's gonna capture your emotion
You're right beside me but I, I can't get through